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UWI Blackbirds vs Ellerton — Premier League 2019

UWI Blackbirds
UWI Blackbirds
FT
5 – 2
Ellerton
Ellerton
3/10/2024Premier LeaguePremier League · Round 3Wildey Turf

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 41+ matches

UWI Blackbirds41%
×Draw22%
Ellerton36%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

UWI Blackbirds
1.83
Ellerton
1.71

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 46 home / 41 away

creates per match

UWI Blackbirds
2.30
Ellerton
2.17

allows per match

UWI Blackbirds
1.24
Ellerton
1.37

finishing

UWI Blackbirds+0.00on par
Ellerton+0.00on par

Total goals

68%Over
  • Over68
  • Under32

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

69%Yes
  • Yes69
  • No31

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

UWI Blackbirds ↓

Ellerton →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–15%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–05%
1–19%
1–28%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–03%
3–15%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
87%13%2.5
68%32%3.5
47%53%4.5
28%72%

Double chance

UWI Blackbirds or draw
64%
UWI Blackbirds or Ellerton
78%
Draw or Ellerton
59%

Winning margin

UWI Blackbirds wins by 2+
22%
Ellerton wins by 2+
18%

Team goals

UWI Blackbirds 1+ goals
84%
UWI Blackbirds 2+ goals
54%
UWI Blackbirds 3+ goals
28%
Ellerton 1+ goals
82%
Ellerton 2+ goals
51%
Ellerton 3+ goals
24%

Draw no bet

UWI Blackbirds (draw refunded)
53%
Ellerton (draw refunded)
47%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
60%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

UWI Blackbirds at home — creates 2.30, concedes 1.24 · 46 matches

Ellerton away — creates 2.17, concedes 1.37 · 41 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

UWI Blackbirds attack 2.30 + Ellerton defence 1.37 → ÷2 → 1.83

Ellerton attack 2.17 + UWI Blackbirds defence 1.24 → ÷2 → 1.71

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

UWI Blackbirds scores more
41%
level
22%
Ellerton scores more
36%

UWI Blackbirds at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "UWI Blackbirds will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Premier League: UWI Blackbirds 5–2 Ellerton

UWI Blackbirds beat Ellerton 5-2 in Premier League on March 10, 2024.

The match was played at Wildey Turf in Bridgetown.