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Utsikten vs Trelleborg — Superettan 2018

Utsikten
Utsikten
FT
0 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Trelleborg
Trelleborg
8/9/2022SuperettanSuperettan · Round 18Bravida Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 61+ matches

Utsikten51%
×Draw24%
Trelleborg26%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Utsikten
1.75
Trelleborg
1.18

Utsikten creates 48% more chances

Season form · 61 home / 110 away

creates per match

Utsikten
1.79
Trelleborg
1.15

allows per match

Utsikten
1.21
Trelleborg
1.72

finishing

Utsikten+0.00on par
Trelleborg+0.00on par

Total goals

56%Over
  • Over56
  • Under44

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

57%Yes
  • Yes57
  • No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Utsikten ↓

Trelleborg →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–16%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–09%
1–111%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–110%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–16%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
79%21%2.5
56%44%3.5
34%66%4.5
17%83%

Double chance

Utsikten or draw
74%
Utsikten or Trelleborg
76%
Draw or Trelleborg
49%

Winning margin

Utsikten wins by 2+
28%
Trelleborg wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Utsikten 1+ goals
83%
Utsikten 2+ goals
52%
Utsikten 3+ goals
25%
Trelleborg 1+ goals
69%
Trelleborg 2+ goals
33%
Trelleborg 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

Utsikten (draw refunded)
66%
Trelleborg (draw refunded)
34%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
46%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Utsikten at home — creates 1.79, concedes 1.21 · 61 matches

Trelleborg away — creates 1.15, concedes 1.72 · 110 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Utsikten attack 1.79 + Trelleborg defence 1.72 → ÷2 → 1.75

Trelleborg attack 1.15 + Utsikten defence 1.21 → ÷2 → 1.18

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 51%?"

Utsikten scores more
51%
level
24%
Trelleborg scores more
26%

Utsikten at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "Utsikten will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Superettan: Utsikten 0–0 Trelleborg

Utsikten and Trelleborg drew 0-0 in Superettan on August 9, 2022.

The match was played at Bravida Arena in Göteborg.