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UTS Rabat vs Olympique Safi — Botola Pro 2025

UTS Rabat
UTS Rabat
FT
1 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Olympique Safi
Olympique Safi
1/4/2024Botola ProBotola Pro · Round 14Stade Prince Moulay El Hassan

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 60+ matches

UTS Rabat40%
×Draw29%
Olympique Safi31%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

UTS Rabat
1.21
Olympique Safi
1.02

UTS Rabat creates 19% more chances

Season form · 60 home / 120 away

creates per match

UTS Rabat
1.12
Olympique Safi
0.96

allows per match

UTS Rabat
1.08
Olympique Safi
1.29

finishing

UTS Rabat+0.00on par
Olympique Safi+0.00on par

Total goals

61%Under
  • Under61
  • Over39

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

55%No
  • No55
  • Yes45

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

UTS Rabat ↓

Olympique Safi →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–011%
0–111%
0–26%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–113%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–18%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
89%11%1.5
65%35%2.5
39%61%3.5
19%81%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

UTS Rabat or draw
69%
UTS Rabat or Olympique Safi
71%
Draw or Olympique Safi
60%

Winning margin

UTS Rabat wins by 2+
17%
Olympique Safi wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

UTS Rabat 1+ goals
70%
UTS Rabat 2+ goals
34%
UTS Rabat 3+ goals
12%
Olympique Safi 1+ goals
64%
Olympique Safi 2+ goals
27%
Olympique Safi 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

UTS Rabat (draw refunded)
57%
Olympique Safi (draw refunded)
43%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
32%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

UTS Rabat at home — creates 1.12, concedes 1.08 · 60 matches

Olympique Safi away — creates 0.96, concedes 1.29 · 120 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

UTS Rabat attack 1.12 + Olympique Safi defence 1.29 → ÷2 → 1.21

Olympique Safi attack 0.96 + UTS Rabat defence 1.08 → ÷2 → 1.02

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

UTS Rabat scores more
40%
level
29%
Olympique Safi scores more
31%

UTS Rabat at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "UTS Rabat will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: UTS Rabat vs Olympique Safi

UTS Rabat beat Olympique Safi 1-0 in Botola Pro on January 4, 2024.

The match was played at Stade Prince Moulay El Hassan in Rabat.