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Utrera vs Gerena — Tercera División RFEF - Group 10 2019

Utrera
Utrera
FT
3 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Gerena
Gerena
11/17/2019Tercera División RFEF - Group 10Tercera División RFEF - Group 10 · Group 10 - 14Estadio San Juan Bosco

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 76+ matches

Utrera48%
×Draw27%
Gerena26%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Utrera
1.44
Gerena
0.98

Utrera creates 47% more chances

Season form · 94 home / 76 away

creates per match

Utrera
1.62
Gerena
1.11

allows per match

Utrera
0.85
Gerena
1.26

finishing

Utrera+0.00on par
Gerena+0.00on par

Total goals

56%Under
  • Under56
  • Over44

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

52%No
  • No52
  • Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Utrera ↓

Gerena →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–19%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–09%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
70%30%2.5
44%56%3.5
22%78%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Utrera or draw
74%
Utrera or Gerena
73%
Draw or Gerena
52%

Winning margin

Utrera wins by 2+
23%
Gerena wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Utrera 1+ goals
76%
Utrera 2+ goals
42%
Utrera 3+ goals
18%
Gerena 1+ goals
62%
Gerena 2+ goals
26%
Gerena 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

Utrera (draw refunded)
65%
Gerena (draw refunded)
35%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
35%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Utrera at home — creates 1.62, concedes 0.85 · 94 matches

Gerena away — creates 1.11, concedes 1.26 · 76 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Utrera attack 1.62 + Gerena defence 1.26 → ÷2 → 1.44

Gerena attack 1.11 + Utrera defence 0.85 → ÷2 → 0.98

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Utrera scores more
48%
level
27%
Gerena scores more
26%

Utrera at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Utrera will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Utrera 3 – 0 Gerena

Utrera beat Gerena 3-0 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 10 on November 17, 2019.

The match was played at Estadio San Juan Bosco in Sevilla.