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Utrera vs Atlético Central — Tercera División RFEF - Group 10 2019

Utrera
Utrera
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Atlético Central
Atlético Central
11/17/2024Tercera División RFEF - Group 10Tercera División RFEF - Group 10 · Group 10 - 11Estadio San Juan Bosco

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 35+ matches

Utrera47%
×Draw29%
Atlético Central24%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Utrera
1.27
Atlético Central
0.81

Utrera creates 57% more chances

Season form · 94 home / 35 away

creates per match

Utrera
1.62
Atlético Central
0.77

allows per match

Utrera
0.85
Atlético Central
0.91

finishing

Utrera+0.00on par
Atlético Central+0.00on par

Total goals

66%Under
  • Under66
  • Over34

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

60%No
  • No60
  • Yes40

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Utrera ↓

Atlético Central →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–012%
0–110%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–016%
1–113%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–18%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–13%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (16%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
88%12%1.5
62%38%2.5
34%66%3.5
16%84%4.5
6%94%

Double chance

Utrera or draw
76%
Utrera or Atlético Central
71%
Draw or Atlético Central
53%

Winning margin

Utrera wins by 2+
22%
Atlético Central wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

Utrera 1+ goals
72%
Utrera 2+ goals
36%
Utrera 3+ goals
14%
Atlético Central 1+ goals
56%
Atlético Central 2+ goals
19%
Atlético Central 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

Utrera (draw refunded)
67%
Atlético Central (draw refunded)
33%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
27%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Utrera at home — creates 1.62, concedes 0.85 · 94 matches

Atlético Central away — creates 0.77, concedes 0.91 · 35 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Utrera attack 1.62 + Atlético Central defence 0.91 → ÷2 → 1.27

Atlético Central attack 0.77 + Utrera defence 0.85 → ÷2 → 0.81

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Utrera scores more
47%
level
29%
Atlético Central scores more
24%

Utrera at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Utrera will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Utrera vs Atlético Central

Atlético Central beat Utrera 1-0 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 10 on November 17, 2024.

The match was played at Estadio San Juan Bosco in Utrera.