Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Utrecht vs AZ Alkmaar — Eredivisie 2018

Utrecht
Utrecht
FT
1 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
AZ Alkmaar
AZ Alkmaar
12/3/2023EredivisieEredivisie · Round 14Stadion Galgenwaard

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 14+ matches

Utrecht43%
×Draw24%
AZ Alkmaar33%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Utrecht
1.63
AZ Alkmaar
1.42

Utrecht creates 15% more chances

Season form · 25 home / 14 away

creates per match

Utrecht
1.61
AZ Alkmaar
1.67

allows per match

Utrecht
1.17
AZ Alkmaar
1.65

finishing

Utrecht-0.01on par
AZ Alkmaar-0.24scores less

Total goals

59%Over
  • Over59
  • Under41

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

61%Yes
  • Yes61
  • No39

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Utrecht ↓

AZ Alkmaar →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–17%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–111%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–15%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
81%19%2.5
59%41%3.5
36%64%4.5
19%81%

Double chance

Utrecht or draw
67%
Utrecht or AZ Alkmaar
76%
Draw or AZ Alkmaar
57%

Winning margin

Utrecht wins by 2+
22%
AZ Alkmaar wins by 2+
15%

Team goals

Utrecht 1+ goals
80%
Utrecht 2+ goals
48%
Utrecht 3+ goals
22%
AZ Alkmaar 1+ goals
76%
AZ Alkmaar 2+ goals
41%
AZ Alkmaar 3+ goals
17%

Draw no bet

Utrecht (draw refunded)
56%
AZ Alkmaar (draw refunded)
44%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
50%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Utrecht at home — creates 1.61, concedes 1.17 · 25 matches

AZ Alkmaar away — creates 1.67, concedes 1.65 · 14 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Utrecht attack 1.61 + AZ Alkmaar defence 1.65 → ÷2 → 1.63

AZ Alkmaar attack 1.67 + Utrecht defence 1.17 → ÷2 → 1.42

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Utrecht scores more
43%
level
24%
AZ Alkmaar scores more
33%

Utrecht at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Utrecht will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Eredivisie: Utrecht 1–1 AZ Alkmaar

Utrecht and AZ Alkmaar drew 1-1 in Eredivisie on December 3, 2023.

The match was played at Stadion Galgenwaard in Utrecht.