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UTC Cajamarca vs UCV Moquegua — Primera División 2018

UTC Cajamarca
UTC Cajamarca
Preview
18:00
UCV Moquegua
UCV Moquegua
7/26/2026Primera DivisiónPrimera División · Clausura - 2Estadio Heroes de San Ramon
55%
UTC Cajamarca
model favours
55%26%19%

UTC Cajamarca score first in only 17% of matches

brightest fact of this match

1–0
likely score
59%
under 2.5 goals
43%
both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 9+ matches

UTC Cajamarca55%
×Draw26%
UCV Moquegua19%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

UTC Cajamarca
1.54
UCV Moquegua
0.78

UTC Cajamarca creates 97% more chances

Season form · 146 home / 9 away

creates per match

UTC Cajamarca
1.41
UCV Moquegua
0.44

allows per match

UTC Cajamarca
1.12
UCV Moquegua
1.67

finishing

UTC Cajamarca+0.00on par
UCV Moquegua+0.00on par

Total goals

59%Under
  • Under59
  • Over41

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

57%No
  • No57
  • Yes43

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

UTC Cajamarca ↓

UCV Moquegua →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–18%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–015%
1–112%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–012%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–06%
3–15%
3–22%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
67%33%2.5
41%59%3.5
20%80%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

UTC Cajamarca or draw
81%
UTC Cajamarca or UCV Moquegua
74%
Draw or UCV Moquegua
45%

Winning margin

UTC Cajamarca wins by 2+
29%
UCV Moquegua wins by 2+
6%

Team goals

UTC Cajamarca 1+ goals
79%
UTC Cajamarca 2+ goals
45%
UTC Cajamarca 3+ goals
20%
UCV Moquegua 1+ goals
54%
UCV Moquegua 2+ goals
18%
UCV Moquegua 3+ goals
4%

Draw no bet

UTC Cajamarca (draw refunded)
74%
UCV Moquegua (draw refunded)
26%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
31%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

UTC Cajamarca at home — creates 1.41, concedes 1.12 · 146 matches

UCV Moquegua away — creates 0.44, concedes 1.67 · 9 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

UTC Cajamarca attack 1.41 + UCV Moquegua defence 1.67 → ÷2 → 1.54

UCV Moquegua attack 0.44 + UTC Cajamarca defence 1.12 → ÷2 → 0.78

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 55%?"

UTC Cajamarca scores more
55%
level
26%
UCV Moquegua scores more
19%

UTC Cajamarca at 55% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 55% does not mean "UTC Cajamarca will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Form
Cajamarca
WWDDD
Moquegua
DDWLD

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Preview: UTC Cajamarca host UCV Moquegua

July 26, 2026: UTC Cajamarca take on UCV Moquegua in Primera División. Track every goal, card, and substitution live on Scoreo as the action unfolds.

UTC Cajamarca host UCV Moquegua at Estadio Heroes de San Ramon.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.