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UTC Cajamarca vs Juan Pablo II College — Primera División 2018

UTC Cajamarca
UTC Cajamarca
Preview
20:00
Juan Pablo II College
Juan Pablo II College
9/12/2026Primera DivisiónPrimera División · Clausura - 9Estadio Heroes de San Ramon
59%
UTC Cajamarca
model favours
59%22%19%

UTC Cajamarca score first in only 17% of matches

brightest fact of this match

1–0
likely score
53%
over 2.5 goals
52%
both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 26+ matches

UTC Cajamarca59%
×Draw22%
Juan Pablo II College19%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

UTC Cajamarca
1.86
Juan Pablo II College
0.95

UTC Cajamarca creates 96% more chances

Season form · 146 home / 26 away

creates per match

UTC Cajamarca
1.41
Juan Pablo II College
0.77

allows per match

UTC Cajamarca
1.12
Juan Pablo II College
2.31

finishing

UTC Cajamarca+0.00on par
Juan Pablo II College+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Over
  • Over53
  • Under47

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

52%Yes
  • Yes52
  • No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

UTC Cajamarca ↓

Juan Pablo II College →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–16%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–011%
1–111%
1–25%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–110%
2–25%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–06%
3–16%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–13%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
77%23%2.5
53%47%3.5
31%69%4.5
15%85%

Double chance

UTC Cajamarca or draw
81%
UTC Cajamarca or Juan Pablo II College
78%
Draw or Juan Pablo II College
41%

Winning margin

UTC Cajamarca wins by 2+
34%
Juan Pablo II College wins by 2+
6%

Team goals

UTC Cajamarca 1+ goals
84%
UTC Cajamarca 2+ goals
55%
UTC Cajamarca 3+ goals
28%
Juan Pablo II College 1+ goals
61%
Juan Pablo II College 2+ goals
25%
Juan Pablo II College 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

UTC Cajamarca (draw refunded)
76%
Juan Pablo II College (draw refunded)
24%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
41%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

UTC Cajamarca at home — creates 1.41, concedes 1.12 · 146 matches

Juan Pablo II College away — creates 0.77, concedes 2.31 · 26 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

UTC Cajamarca attack 1.41 + Juan Pablo II College defence 2.31 → ÷2 → 1.86

Juan Pablo II College attack 0.77 + UTC Cajamarca defence 1.12 → ÷2 → 0.95

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 59%?"

UTC Cajamarca scores more
59%
level
22%
Juan Pablo II College scores more
19%

UTC Cajamarca at 59% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 59% does not mean "UTC Cajamarca will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Form
Cajamarca
WWDDD
College
DDLDL

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

UTC Cajamarca face Juan Pablo II College (Primera División)

Primera División returns with UTC Cajamarca hosting Juan Pablo II College. Match starts September 12, 2026. Live commentary, lineups, and stats appear here from kickoff. Submit your prediction below for a chance to earn XP.

UTC Cajamarca host Juan Pablo II College at Estadio Heroes de San Ramon.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.