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UTC Cajamarca vs FBC Melgar — Primera División 2018

UTC Cajamarca
UTC Cajamarca
FT
3 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
FBC Melgar
FBC Melgar
3/4/2022Primera DivisiónPrimera División · Apertura - 5Estadio Héroes de San Ramón

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 6+ matches

UTC Cajamarca29%
×Draw25%
FBC Melgar47%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

UTC Cajamarca
1.21
FBC Melgar
1.61

FBC Melgar creates 33% more chances

Season form · 10 home / 6 away

creates per match

UTC Cajamarca
1.18
FBC Melgar
1.55

allows per match

UTC Cajamarca
1.67
FBC Melgar
1.23

finishing

UTC Cajamarca-0.18scores less
FBC Melgar-0.55scores less

Total goals

53%Over
  • Over53
  • Under47

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

56%Yes
  • Yes56
  • No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

UTC Cajamarca ↓

FBC Melgar →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–110%
0–28%
0–34%
0–42%
1
1–07%
1–112%
1–29%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–04%
2–17%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
77%23%2.5
53%47%3.5
31%69%4.5
15%85%

Double chance

UTC Cajamarca or draw
53%
UTC Cajamarca or FBC Melgar
75%
Draw or FBC Melgar
71%

Winning margin

UTC Cajamarca wins by 2+
12%
FBC Melgar wins by 2+
24%

Team goals

UTC Cajamarca 1+ goals
70%
UTC Cajamarca 2+ goals
34%
UTC Cajamarca 3+ goals
12%
FBC Melgar 1+ goals
80%
FBC Melgar 2+ goals
48%
FBC Melgar 3+ goals
22%

Draw no bet

UTC Cajamarca (draw refunded)
38%
FBC Melgar (draw refunded)
62%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
44%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

UTC Cajamarca at home — creates 1.18, concedes 1.67 · 10 matches

FBC Melgar away — creates 1.55, concedes 1.23 · 6 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

UTC Cajamarca attack 1.18 + FBC Melgar defence 1.23 → ÷2 → 1.21

FBC Melgar attack 1.55 + UTC Cajamarca defence 1.67 → ÷2 → 1.61

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

UTC Cajamarca scores more
29%
level
25%
FBC Melgar scores more
47%

FBC Melgar at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "FBC Melgar will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Primera División: UTC Cajamarca 3–1 FBC Melgar

UTC Cajamarca beat FBC Melgar 3-1 in Primera División on March 4, 2022.

The match was played at Estadio Héroes de San Ramón in Cajamarca.