UTC Cajamarca 1–1 FBC Melgar: Result & Stats

UTC Cajamarca

FT

1 – 1

HT: 1 – 1

FBC Melgar

M. Guevgeozián 19'

O. Arce 32'

2/28/2020

Primera División · Apertura - 5Estadio Héroes de San Ramón

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 6+ matches

UTC Cajamarca29%

×Draw25%

FBC Melgar47%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

UTC CajamarcaExpected goals in this matchFBC Melgar

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.21

1.61

UTC Cajamarca

1.21

FBC Melgar

1.61

FBC Melgar creates 33% more chances

Season form · 10 home / 6 away

1.18

creates per match

1.55

1.67

allows per match

1.23

creates per match

UTC Cajamarca

1.18

FBC Melgar

1.55

allows per match

UTC Cajamarca

1.67

FBC Melgar

1.23

-0.18scores less than expected

finishing

-0.55scores less than expected

finishing

UTC Cajamarca-0.18scores less

FBC Melgar-0.55scores less

Total goals

Over53
Under47

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes56
No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

UTC Cajamarca ↓

FBC Melgar →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–110%

0–28%

0–34%

0–42%

1

1–07%

1–112%

1–29%

1–35%

1–42%

2

2–04%

2–17%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–02%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

77%23%2.5

53%47%3.5

31%69%4.5

15%85%

Double chance

UTC Cajamarca or draw

53%

UTC Cajamarca or FBC Melgar

75%

Draw or FBC Melgar

71%

Winning margin

UTC Cajamarca wins by 2+

12%

FBC Melgar wins by 2+

24%

Team goals

UTC Cajamarca 1+ goals

70%

UTC Cajamarca 2+ goals

34%

UTC Cajamarca 3+ goals

12%

FBC Melgar 1+ goals

80%

FBC Melgar 2+ goals

48%

FBC Melgar 3+ goals

22%

Draw no bet

UTC Cajamarca (draw refunded)

38%

FBC Melgar (draw refunded)

62%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

44%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

UTC Cajamarca at home — creates 1.18, concedes 1.67 · 10 matches

FBC Melgar away — creates 1.55, concedes 1.23 · 6 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

UTC Cajamarca attack 1.18 + FBC Melgar defence 1.23 → ÷2 → 1.21

FBC Melgar attack 1.55 + UTC Cajamarca defence 1.67 → ÷2 → 1.61

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

UTC Cajamarca scores more

29%

level

25%

FBC Melgar scores more

47%

FBC Melgar at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "FBC Melgar will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

7

J. Estrada

UTC Cajamarca · D

8.0

Match Events

19'

M. Guevgeozián↳ G. Martínez

32'

38'

40'

54'

58'

68'

D. Cabrera← E. Aubert

70'

F. Pérez← R. Campodónico

76'

Carlos Neyra

80'

Eduardo Rabanal

80'

J. Vidales← J. Amoroso

84'

R. Espinoza← P. Goyoneche

88'

W. Tandazo← I. Ávila

90'

Othoniel Arce

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

UTCFBC

Overview

33%Possession67%

16Total Shots16

4Corners7

22Fouls16

Shots

16Total Shots16

6On Target3

8Off Target9

2Blocked4

8Inside Box8

8Outside Box8

Passing

33%Possession67%

251Total Passes510

191Accurate Passes422

76%Pass Accuracy83%

Goalkeeping

2Saves5

Discipline

22Fouls16

2Yellow Cards4

0Red Cards1

2Offsides6