Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

UTC Cajamarca vs Ayacucho FC — Primera División 2018

UTC Cajamarca
UTC Cajamarca
FT
2 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Ayacucho FC
Ayacucho FC
10/28/2019Primera DivisiónPrimera División · Clausura - 13Estadio Héroes de San Ramón

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 104+ matches

UTC Cajamarca48%
×Draw25%
Ayacucho FC26%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

UTC Cajamarca
1.57
Ayacucho FC
1.09

UTC Cajamarca creates 44% more chances

Season form · 146 home / 104 away

creates per match

UTC Cajamarca
1.41
Ayacucho FC
1.06

allows per match

UTC Cajamarca
1.12
Ayacucho FC
1.74

finishing

UTC Cajamarca+0.00on par
Ayacucho FC+0.00on par

Total goals

50%Under
  • Under50
  • Over50

Close call

Both teams score

53%Yes
  • Yes53
  • No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

UTC Cajamarca ↓

Ayacucho FC →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–18%
0–24%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–011%
1–112%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
74%26%2.5
50%50%3.5
28%72%4.5
13%87%

Double chance

UTC Cajamarca or draw
74%
UTC Cajamarca or Ayacucho FC
75%
Draw or Ayacucho FC
52%

Winning margin

UTC Cajamarca wins by 2+
25%
Ayacucho FC wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

UTC Cajamarca 1+ goals
79%
UTC Cajamarca 2+ goals
46%
UTC Cajamarca 3+ goals
21%
Ayacucho FC 1+ goals
66%
Ayacucho FC 2+ goals
30%
Ayacucho FC 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

UTC Cajamarca (draw refunded)
65%
Ayacucho FC (draw refunded)
35%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
41%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

UTC Cajamarca at home — creates 1.41, concedes 1.12 · 146 matches

Ayacucho FC away — creates 1.06, concedes 1.74 · 104 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

UTC Cajamarca attack 1.41 + Ayacucho FC defence 1.74 → ÷2 → 1.57

Ayacucho FC attack 1.06 + UTC Cajamarca defence 1.12 → ÷2 → 1.09

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

UTC Cajamarca scores more
48%
level
25%
Ayacucho FC scores more
26%

UTC Cajamarca at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "UTC Cajamarca will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Primera División: UTC Cajamarca 2–0 Ayacucho FC

UTC Cajamarca beat Ayacucho FC 2-0 in Primera División on October 28, 2019.

The match was played at Estadio Héroes de San Ramón in Cajamarca.