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UTC Cajamarca vs Alianza Lima — Primera División 2018

UTC Cajamarca
UTC Cajamarca
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Alianza Lima
Alianza Lima
3/5/2023Primera DivisiónPrimera División · Apertura - 7Estadio Héroes de San Ramón

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 6+ matches

UTC Cajamarca28%
×Draw28%
Alianza Lima44%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

UTC Cajamarca
1.00
Alianza Lima
1.33

Alianza Lima creates 33% more chances

Season form · 10 home / 6 away

creates per match

UTC Cajamarca
1.18
Alianza Lima
1.00

allows per match

UTC Cajamarca
1.67
Alianza Lima
0.82

finishing

UTC Cajamarca-0.18scores less
Alianza Lima-0.33scores less

Total goals

59%Under
  • Under59
  • Over41

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

54%No
  • No54
  • Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

UTC Cajamarca ↓

Alianza Lima →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–113%
0–29%
0–34%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–113%
1–29%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–05%
2–16%
2–24%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–12%
3–21%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
68%32%2.5
41%59%3.5
21%79%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

UTC Cajamarca or draw
56%
UTC Cajamarca or Alianza Lima
72%
Draw or Alianza Lima
72%

Winning margin

UTC Cajamarca wins by 2+
10%
Alianza Lima wins by 2+
21%

Team goals

UTC Cajamarca 1+ goals
63%
UTC Cajamarca 2+ goals
26%
UTC Cajamarca 3+ goals
8%
Alianza Lima 1+ goals
74%
Alianza Lima 2+ goals
38%
Alianza Lima 3+ goals
15%

Draw no bet

UTC Cajamarca (draw refunded)
39%
Alianza Lima (draw refunded)
61%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
34%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

UTC Cajamarca at home — creates 1.18, concedes 1.67 · 10 matches

Alianza Lima away — creates 1.00, concedes 0.82 · 6 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

UTC Cajamarca attack 1.18 + Alianza Lima defence 0.82 → ÷2 → 1.00

Alianza Lima attack 1.00 + UTC Cajamarca defence 1.67 → ÷2 → 1.33

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

UTC Cajamarca scores more
28%
level
28%
Alianza Lima scores more
44%

Alianza Lima at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Alianza Lima will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: UTC Cajamarca vs Alianza Lima

Alianza Lima beat UTC Cajamarca 1-0 in Primera División on March 5, 2023.

The match was played at Estadio Héroes de San Ramón in Cajamarca.