Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

UTC Cajamarca vs ADT — Primera División 2018

UTC Cajamarca
UTC Cajamarca
Preview
18:00
ADT
ADT
8/8/2026Primera DivisiónPrimera División · Clausura - 4Estadio Heroes de San Ramon
Big match
48%
UTC Cajamarca
model favours
48%26%26%

UTC Cajamarca score first in only 17% of matches

brightest fact of this match

1–1
likely score
53%
under 2.5 goals
50%
both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 78+ matches

UTC Cajamarca48%
×Draw26%
ADT26%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

UTC Cajamarca
1.52
ADT
1.04

UTC Cajamarca creates 46% more chances

Season form · 146 home / 78 away

creates per match

UTC Cajamarca
1.41
ADT
0.97

allows per match

UTC Cajamarca
1.12
ADT
1.62

finishing

UTC Cajamarca+0.00on par
ADT+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Under
  • Under53
  • Over47

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

50%No
  • No50
  • Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

UTC Cajamarca ↓

ADT →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–18%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–112%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–15%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
72%28%2.5
47%53%3.5
25%75%4.5
12%88%

Double chance

UTC Cajamarca or draw
74%
UTC Cajamarca or ADT
74%
Draw or ADT
52%

Winning margin

UTC Cajamarca wins by 2+
24%
ADT wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

UTC Cajamarca 1+ goals
78%
UTC Cajamarca 2+ goals
45%
UTC Cajamarca 3+ goals
20%
ADT 1+ goals
65%
ADT 2+ goals
28%
ADT 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

UTC Cajamarca (draw refunded)
65%
ADT (draw refunded)
35%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
38%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

UTC Cajamarca at home — creates 1.41, concedes 1.12 · 146 matches

ADT away — creates 0.97, concedes 1.62 · 78 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

UTC Cajamarca attack 1.41 + ADT defence 1.62 → ÷2 → 1.52

ADT attack 0.97 + UTC Cajamarca defence 1.12 → ÷2 → 1.04

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

UTC Cajamarca scores more
48%
level
26%
ADT scores more
26%

UTC Cajamarca at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "UTC Cajamarca will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Insights

  • Both teams score in only 30% of ADT’s matches

Based on historical data — not a prediction.

Style Matchup

Contrasting styles
UTC Cajamarca
Balanced
ADT
Defensively solid
47%Possession53%
75%Pass accuracy78%
12.2Shots13.0
1.03xGBiggest gap1.39
Pass acc.ShotsxGBox shareShot acc.Defense
UTC CajamarcaADT

Head-to-head

9 previous meetings

2
UTC Cajamarca
4
Draws
3
ADT
Avg goals: 2.4BTTS: 67%
2–21–30–11–11–2

Playing styles from match stats. Historical H2H record. Not a prediction.

Form
Cajamarca
WWDDD
ADT
WLWDL

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Preview: UTC Cajamarca host ADT

August 8, 2026: UTC Cajamarca take on ADT in Primera División. Track every goal, card, and substitution live on Scoreo as the action unfolds.

UTC Cajamarca host ADT at Estadio Heroes de San Ramon.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.