UTC Cajamarca 1–0 ADT: Result & Stats

UTC Cajamarca

FT

1 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

ADT

C. Diez 65'

4/8/2023

Primera División · Apertura - 11Estadio Héroes de San Ramón

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 78+ matches

UTC Cajamarca48%

×Draw26%

ADT26%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

UTC CajamarcaExpected goals in this matchADT

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.52

1.04

UTC Cajamarca

1.52

ADT

1.04

UTC Cajamarca creates 46% more chances

Season form · 146 home / 78 away

1.41

creates per match

0.97

1.12

allows per match

1.62

creates per match

UTC Cajamarca

1.41

ADT

0.97

allows per match

UTC Cajamarca

1.12

ADT

1.62

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

UTC Cajamarca+0.00on par

ADT+0.00on par

Total goals

Under53
Over47

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No50
Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

UTC Cajamarca ↓

ADT →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–18%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–012%

1–112%

1–26%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–09%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–05%

3–15%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

72%28%2.5

47%53%3.5

25%75%4.5

12%88%

Double chance

UTC Cajamarca or draw

74%

UTC Cajamarca or ADT

74%

Draw or ADT

52%

Winning margin

UTC Cajamarca wins by 2+

24%

ADT wins by 2+

10%

Team goals

UTC Cajamarca 1+ goals

78%

UTC Cajamarca 2+ goals

45%

UTC Cajamarca 3+ goals

20%

ADT 1+ goals

65%

ADT 2+ goals

28%

ADT 3+ goals

9%

Draw no bet

UTC Cajamarca (draw refunded)

65%

ADT (draw refunded)

35%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

38%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

UTC Cajamarca at home — creates 1.41, concedes 1.12 · 146 matches

ADT away — creates 0.97, concedes 1.62 · 78 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

UTC Cajamarca attack 1.41 + ADT defence 1.62 → ÷2 → 1.52

ADT attack 0.97 + UTC Cajamarca defence 1.12 → ÷2 → 1.04

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

UTC Cajamarca scores more

48%

level

26%

ADT scores more

26%

UTC Cajamarca at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "UTC Cajamarca will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

14

C. Diez

UTC Cajamarca · M

7.7

Match Events

21'

William Mimbela

45+3'

Jose Cazares

46'

J. Sánchez← R. Fernández

46'

F. Peraza← O. Belinetz

46'

C. Mejía← M. Abisab

46'

J. Agüero← W. Mimbela

59'

60'

65'

69'

77'

H. Rengifo← J. Pósito

77'

G. Choi← A. Alfageme

83'

J. Falconí← E. Saba

84'

P. Requena← E. Ramírez

84'

J. Ortiz← L. Trujillo

90+7'

Gianmarco Gambetta

90+5'

Patrick Zubczuk

90+2'

Gu Choi

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

UTCADT

Overview

64%Possession36%

8Total Shots19

11Corners3

17Fouls15

Shots

8Total Shots19

3On Target4

3Off Target7

2Blocked8

4Inside Box10

4Outside Box9

Passing

64%Possession36%

359Total Passes209

265Accurate Passes125

74%Pass Accuracy60%

Goalkeeping

4Saves2

Discipline

17Fouls15

4Yellow Cards3

3Offsides2

Primera División: UTC Cajamarca 1–0 ADT

UTC Cajamarca beat ADT 1-0 in Primera División on April 8, 2023.

Goals: C. Diez (65').

UTC Cajamarca controlled possession (64%) and registered 8 shots to 19.

The match was played at Estadio Héroes de San Ramón in Cajamarca.

UTC Cajamarca vs ADT — Primera División 2026

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Player of the match

Match Events

Head to Head

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

Primera División: UTC Cajamarca 1–0 ADT