UTC Cajamarca 2–2 ADT: Result & Stats

UTC Cajamarca

FT

2 – 2

HT: 2 – 0

ADT

10/20/2022

Primera División · Clausura - 17Estadio Héroes de San Ramón

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 78+ matches

UTC Cajamarca48%

×Draw26%

ADT26%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

UTC CajamarcaExpected goals in this matchADT

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.52

1.04

UTC Cajamarca

1.52

ADT

1.04

UTC Cajamarca creates 46% more chances

Season form · 146 home / 78 away

1.41

creates per match

0.97

1.12

allows per match

1.62

creates per match

UTC Cajamarca

1.41

ADT

0.97

allows per match

UTC Cajamarca

1.12

ADT

1.62

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

UTC Cajamarca+0.00on par

ADT+0.00on par

Total goals

Under53
Over47

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No50
Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

UTC Cajamarca ↓

ADT →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–18%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–012%

1–112%

1–26%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–09%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–05%

3–15%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

72%28%2.5

47%53%3.5

25%75%4.5

12%88%

Double chance

UTC Cajamarca or draw

74%

UTC Cajamarca or ADT

74%

Draw or ADT

52%

Winning margin

UTC Cajamarca wins by 2+

24%

ADT wins by 2+

10%

Team goals

UTC Cajamarca 1+ goals

78%

UTC Cajamarca 2+ goals

45%

UTC Cajamarca 3+ goals

20%

ADT 1+ goals

65%

ADT 2+ goals

28%

ADT 3+ goals

9%

Draw no bet

UTC Cajamarca (draw refunded)

65%

ADT (draw refunded)

35%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

38%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

UTC Cajamarca at home — creates 1.41, concedes 1.12 · 146 matches

ADT away — creates 0.97, concedes 1.62 · 78 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

UTC Cajamarca attack 1.41 + ADT defence 1.62 → ÷2 → 1.52

ADT attack 0.97 + UTC Cajamarca defence 1.12 → ÷2 → 1.04

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

UTC Cajamarca scores more

48%

level

26%

ADT scores more

26%

UTC Cajamarca at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "UTC Cajamarca will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff