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Utah Royals W vs Bay FC W — NWSL Women 2025

Utah Royals W
Utah Royals W
Preview
02:00
Bay FC W
Bay FC W
8/15/2026NWSL WomenNWSL Women · Group StageAmerica First Field
Big match
37%
Utah Royals W
model favours
37%27%36%
1–1
likely score
54%
under 2.5 goals
51%
both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 24+ matches

Utah Royals W37%
×Draw27%
Bay FC W36%
✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
48.6%
Always home
43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Utah Royals W
1.27
Bay FC W
1.23

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 24 home / 24 away

creates per match

Utah Royals W
1.08
Bay FC W
1.08

allows per match

Utah Royals W
1.38
Bay FC W
1.46

finishing

Utah Royals W+0.00on par
Bay FC W+0.00on par

Total goals

54%Under
  • Under54
  • Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

51%Yes
  • Yes51
  • No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Utah Royals W ↓

Bay FC W →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–110%
0–26%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
71%29%2.5
46%54%3.5
24%76%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Utah Royals W or draw
64%
Utah Royals W or Bay FC W
73%
Draw or Bay FC W
63%

Winning margin

Utah Royals W wins by 2+
16%
Bay FC W wins by 2+
15%

Team goals

Utah Royals W 1+ goals
72%
Utah Royals W 2+ goals
36%
Utah Royals W 3+ goals
14%
Bay FC W 1+ goals
71%
Bay FC W 2+ goals
35%
Bay FC W 3+ goals
13%

Draw no bet

Utah Royals W (draw refunded)
51%
Bay FC W (draw refunded)
49%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
38%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Utah Royals W at home — creates 1.08, concedes 1.38 · 24 matches

Bay FC W away — creates 1.08, concedes 1.46 · 24 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Utah Royals W attack 1.08 + Bay FC W defence 1.46 → ÷2 → 1.27

Bay FC W attack 1.08 + Utah Royals W defence 1.38 → ÷2 → 1.23

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 37%?"

Utah Royals W scores more
37%
level
27%
Bay FC W scores more
36%

Utah Royals W at 37% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 37% does not mean "Utah Royals W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Insights

  • Bay FC W fall short of their xG (1.1 vs 2.2 expected)
  • Utah Royals W fall short of their xG (1.2 vs 1.6 expected)

Based on historical data — not a prediction.

Style Matchup

Contrasting styles
Utah Royals W
Balanced
Bay FC W
Attack-heavy
51%Possession50%
76%Pass accuracy78%
10.6Shots13.3
1.59xGBiggest gap2.18
Pass acc.ShotsxGBox shareShot acc.Defense
Utah Royals WBay FC W

Head-to-head

5 previous meetings

3
Utah Royals W
2
Draws
0
Bay FC W
Avg goals: 1.6BTTS: 40%
0–02–01–12–11–0

Playing styles from match stats. Historical H2H record. Not a prediction.

Form
W
LLDWW
W
WDLLL

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Preview: Utah Royals W host Bay FC W

August 15, 2026: Utah Royals W take on Bay FC W in NWSL Women. Track every goal, card, and substitution live on Scoreo as the action unfolds.

Utah Royals W host Bay FC W at America First Field.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.