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Uta Arad vs Petrolul Ploiesti — Liga I 2026

Uta Arad
Uta Arad
FT
1 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Petrolul Ploiesti
Petrolul Ploiesti
2/24/2024Liga ILiga I · Round 27Stadionul Francisc von Neuman

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 5+ matches

Uta Arad48%
×Draw26%
Petrolul Ploiesti26%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Uta Arad
1.52
Petrolul Ploiesti
1.05

Uta Arad creates 45% more chances

Season form · 15 home / 5 away

creates per match

Uta Arad
1.36
Petrolul Ploiesti
0.80

allows per match

Uta Arad
1.30
Petrolul Ploiesti
1.69

finishing

Uta Arad-0.29scores less
Petrolul Ploiesti+0.20scores more

Total goals

53%Under
  • Under53
  • Over47

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

51%Yes
  • Yes51
  • No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Uta Arad ↓

Petrolul Ploiesti →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–18%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–112%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
73%27%2.5
47%53%3.5
26%74%4.5
12%88%

Double chance

Uta Arad or draw
74%
Uta Arad or Petrolul Ploiesti
74%
Draw or Petrolul Ploiesti
52%

Winning margin

Uta Arad wins by 2+
24%
Petrolul Ploiesti wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Uta Arad 1+ goals
78%
Uta Arad 2+ goals
45%
Uta Arad 3+ goals
20%
Petrolul Ploiesti 1+ goals
65%
Petrolul Ploiesti 2+ goals
28%
Petrolul Ploiesti 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Uta Arad (draw refunded)
65%
Petrolul Ploiesti (draw refunded)
35%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
39%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Uta Arad at home — creates 1.36, concedes 1.30 · 15 matches

Petrolul Ploiesti away — creates 0.80, concedes 1.69 · 5 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Uta Arad attack 1.36 + Petrolul Ploiesti defence 1.69 → ÷2 → 1.52

Petrolul Ploiesti attack 0.80 + Uta Arad defence 1.30 → ÷2 → 1.05

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Uta Arad scores more
48%
level
26%
Petrolul Ploiesti scores more
26%

Uta Arad at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Uta Arad will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Liga I: Uta Arad 1–0 Petrolul Ploiesti

Uta Arad beat Petrolul Ploiesti 1-0 in Liga I on February 24, 2024.

The match was played at Stadionul Francisc von Neuman in Arad.