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Uta Arad vs Oţelul — Liga I 2026

Uta Arad
Uta Arad
FT
2 – 4
HT: 0 – 3
Oţelul
Oţelul
11/13/2023Liga ILiga I · Round 16Stadionul Municipal

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 58+ matches

Uta Arad38%
×Draw28%
Oţelul34%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Uta Arad
1.19
Oţelul
1.10

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 120 home / 58 away

creates per match

Uta Arad
1.25
Oţelul
1.10

allows per match

Uta Arad
1.11
Oţelul
1.14

finishing

Uta Arad+0.00on par
Oţelul+0.00on par

Total goals

60%Under
  • Under60
  • Over40

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

54%No
  • No54
  • Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Uta Arad ↓

Oţelul →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–111%
0–26%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–012%
1–113%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–18%
2–24%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
67%33%2.5
40%60%3.5
20%80%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

Uta Arad or draw
66%
Uta Arad or Oţelul
72%
Draw or Oţelul
62%

Winning margin

Uta Arad wins by 2+
16%
Oţelul wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

Uta Arad 1+ goals
70%
Uta Arad 2+ goals
33%
Uta Arad 3+ goals
12%
Oţelul 1+ goals
67%
Oţelul 2+ goals
30%
Oţelul 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

Uta Arad (draw refunded)
53%
Oţelul (draw refunded)
47%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
33%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Uta Arad at home — creates 1.25, concedes 1.11 · 120 matches

Oţelul away — creates 1.10, concedes 1.14 · 58 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Uta Arad attack 1.25 + Oţelul defence 1.14 → ÷2 → 1.19

Oţelul attack 1.10 + Uta Arad defence 1.11 → ÷2 → 1.10

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Uta Arad scores more
38%
level
28%
Oţelul scores more
34%

Uta Arad at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Uta Arad will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Uta Arad vs Oţelul

Oţelul beat Uta Arad 4-2 in Liga I on November 13, 2023.

The match was played at Stadionul Municipal in Sibiu.