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Uta Arad vs FCSB — Liga I 2026

Uta Arad
Uta Arad
Preview
17:00
FCSB
FCSB
1/23/2027Liga ILiga I · Round 22Arena Francisc Neuman
Big match
40%
FCSB
model favours
33%27%40%

Uta Arad score first in only 14% of matches

brightest fact of this match

1–1
likely score
55%
under 2.5 goals
50%
both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 120+ matches

Uta Arad33%
×Draw27%
FCSB40%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Uta Arad
1.16
FCSB
1.31

FCSB creates 13% more chances

Season form · 120 home / 155 away

creates per match

Uta Arad
1.25
FCSB
1.51

allows per match

Uta Arad
1.11
FCSB
1.07

finishing

Uta Arad+0.00on par
FCSB+0.00on par

Total goals

55%Under
  • Under55
  • Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

50%No
  • No50
  • Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Uta Arad ↓

FCSB →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–111%
0–27%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–113%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–17%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
71%29%2.5
45%55%3.5
24%76%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Uta Arad or draw
60%
Uta Arad or FCSB
73%
Draw or FCSB
67%

Winning margin

Uta Arad wins by 2+
13%
FCSB wins by 2+
18%

Team goals

Uta Arad 1+ goals
69%
Uta Arad 2+ goals
32%
Uta Arad 3+ goals
11%
FCSB 1+ goals
73%
FCSB 2+ goals
38%
FCSB 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

Uta Arad (draw refunded)
45%
FCSB (draw refunded)
55%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
37%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Uta Arad at home — creates 1.25, concedes 1.11 · 120 matches

FCSB away — creates 1.51, concedes 1.07 · 155 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Uta Arad attack 1.25 + FCSB defence 1.07 → ÷2 → 1.16

FCSB attack 1.51 + Uta Arad defence 1.11 → ÷2 → 1.31

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Uta Arad scores more
33%
level
27%
FCSB scores more
40%

FCSB at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "FCSB will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Insights

  • Uta Arad have won 3 in a row
  • FCSB win just 14% of their away games
  • Even after scoring first, FCSB win only 46%
  • FCSB have won 7 of the last 10 meetings
  • Uta Arad fall short of their xG (1.0 vs 1.3 expected)
  • Both teams score in 72% of FCSB’s matches

Based on historical data — not a prediction.

Style Matchup

Contrasting styles
Uta Arad
Direct / counter-attacking
FCSB
Balanced
43%Possession52%
72%Pass accuracy80%
11.6Shots10.0
1.28xGBiggest gap1.76
Pass acc.ShotsxGBox shareShot acc.Defense
Uta AradFCSB

Head-to-head

10 previous meetings

3
Uta Arad
0
Draws
7
FCSB
Avg goals: 3.1BTTS: 40%
0–12–43–00–40–1

Playing styles from match stats. Historical H2H record. Not a prediction.

Form
Arad
DWWW
FCSB
WLDDL

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Uta Arad vs FCSB — Match Preview

Uta Arad face FCSB on January 23, 2027 in this Liga I fixture. Get live scores, lineups, and real-time match statistics here when the game starts.

Uta Arad host FCSB at Arena Francisc Neuman.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.