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Uta Arad vs FCSB — Liga I 2026

Uta Arad
Uta Arad
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
FCSB
FCSB
3/13/2021Liga ILiga I · Round 27Stadionul Francisc von Neuman

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 9+ matches

Uta Arad39%
×Draw24%
FCSB37%
✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.6%
Always home
44.7%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.6% correct across 576,853 matches, vs 44.7% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.9% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Uta Arad
1.57
FCSB
1.51

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 18 home / 9 away

creates per match

Uta Arad
1.39
FCSB
1.75

allows per match

Uta Arad
1.27
FCSB
1.75

finishing

Uta Arad-0.17scores less
FCSB+0.14scores more

Total goals

59%Over
  • Over59
  • Under41

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

62%Yes
  • Yes62
  • No38

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Uta Arad ↓

FCSB →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–17%
0–25%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–07%
1–111%
1–28%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
81%19%2.5
59%41%3.5
37%63%4.5
20%80%

Double chance

Uta Arad or draw
63%
Uta Arad or FCSB
76%
Draw or FCSB
61%

Winning margin

Uta Arad wins by 2+
19%
FCSB wins by 2+
18%

Team goals

Uta Arad 1+ goals
79%
Uta Arad 2+ goals
46%
Uta Arad 3+ goals
21%
FCSB 1+ goals
78%
FCSB 2+ goals
44%
FCSB 3+ goals
19%

Draw no bet

Uta Arad (draw refunded)
52%
FCSB (draw refunded)
48%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
51%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Uta Arad at home — creates 1.39, concedes 1.27 · 18 matches

FCSB away — creates 1.75, concedes 1.75 · 9 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Uta Arad attack 1.39 + FCSB defence 1.75 → ÷2 → 1.57

FCSB attack 1.75 + Uta Arad defence 1.27 → ÷2 → 1.51

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Uta Arad scores more
39%
level
24%
FCSB scores more
37%

Uta Arad at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Uta Arad will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Liga I: Uta Arad 0–1 FCSB

FCSB beat Uta Arad 1-0 in Liga I on March 13, 2021.

The match was played at Stadionul Francisc von Neuman in Arad.