USFAS Bamako 1–0 Onze Créateurs: Result & Stats

USFAS Bamako

FT

1 – 0

Onze Créateurs

4/14/2021

Première Division · Round 11Stade Omnisports Modibo Keïta

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 94+ matches

USFAS Bamako36%

×Draw32%

Onze Créateurs33%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

USFAS BamakoExpected goals in this matchOnze Créateurs

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

0.99

0.93

USFAS Bamako

0.99

Onze Créateurs

0.93

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 94 home / 97 away

1.11

creates per match

0.96

0.89

allows per match

0.86

creates per match

USFAS Bamako

1.11

Onze Créateurs

0.96

allows per match

USFAS Bamako

0.89

Onze Créateurs

0.86

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

USFAS Bamako+0.00on par

Onze Créateurs+0.00on par

Total goals

Under70
Over30

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No62
Yes38

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

USFAS Bamako ↓

Onze Créateurs →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–015%

0–114%

0–26%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–015%

1–113%

1–26%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–07%

2–17%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–02%

3–12%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 0–0 (15%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

85%15%1.5

57%43%2.5

30%70%3.5

13%87%4.5

5%95%

Double chance

USFAS Bamako or draw

67%

USFAS Bamako or Onze Créateurs

68%

Draw or Onze Créateurs

64%

Winning margin

USFAS Bamako wins by 2+

13%

Onze Créateurs wins by 2+

12%

Team goals

USFAS Bamako 1+ goals

63%

USFAS Bamako 2+ goals

26%

USFAS Bamako 3+ goals

8%

Onze Créateurs 1+ goals

61%

Onze Créateurs 2+ goals

24%

Onze Créateurs 3+ goals

7%

Draw no bet

USFAS Bamako (draw refunded)

52%

Onze Créateurs (draw refunded)

48%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

25%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

USFAS Bamako at home — creates 1.11, concedes 0.89 · 94 matches

Onze Créateurs away — creates 0.96, concedes 0.86 · 97 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

USFAS Bamako attack 1.11 + Onze Créateurs defence 0.86 → ÷2 → 0.99

Onze Créateurs attack 0.96 + USFAS Bamako defence 0.89 → ÷2 → 0.93

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 36%?"

USFAS Bamako scores more

36%

level

32%

Onze Créateurs scores more

33%

USFAS Bamako at 36% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 36% does not mean "USFAS Bamako will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff