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USC Kita vs Stade Malien Bamako — Première Division 2019

USC Kita
USC Kita
FT
2 – 1
Stade Malien Bamako
Stade Malien Bamako
2/27/2022Première DivisionPremière Division · Round 15Stade Municipal de Kita

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 66+ matches

USC Kita25%
×Draw32%
Stade Malien Bamako43%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

USC Kita
0.76
Stade Malien Bamako
1.09

Stade Malien Bamako creates 43% more chances

Season form · 66 home / 98 away

creates per match

USC Kita
0.92
Stade Malien Bamako
1.39

allows per match

USC Kita
0.79
Stade Malien Bamako
0.59

finishing

USC Kita+0.00on par
Stade Malien Bamako+0.00on par

Total goals

72%Under
  • Under72
  • Over28

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

65%No
  • No65
  • Yes35

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

USC Kita ↓

Stade Malien Bamako →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–016%
0–117%
0–29%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–012%
1–113%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–05%
2–15%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–01%
3–11%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (17%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
84%16%1.5
55%45%2.5
28%72%3.5
12%88%4.5
4%96%

Double chance

USC Kita or draw
57%
USC Kita or Stade Malien Bamako
68%
Draw or Stade Malien Bamako
75%

Winning margin

USC Kita wins by 2+
8%
Stade Malien Bamako wins by 2+
18%

Team goals

USC Kita 1+ goals
53%
USC Kita 2+ goals
18%
USC Kita 3+ goals
4%
Stade Malien Bamako 1+ goals
66%
Stade Malien Bamako 2+ goals
30%
Stade Malien Bamako 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

USC Kita (draw refunded)
37%
Stade Malien Bamako (draw refunded)
63%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
22%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

USC Kita at home — creates 0.92, concedes 0.79 · 66 matches

Stade Malien Bamako away — creates 1.39, concedes 0.59 · 98 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

USC Kita attack 0.92 + Stade Malien Bamako defence 0.59 → ÷2 → 0.76

Stade Malien Bamako attack 1.39 + USC Kita defence 0.79 → ÷2 → 1.09

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

USC Kita scores more
25%
level
32%
Stade Malien Bamako scores more
43%

Stade Malien Bamako at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Stade Malien Bamako will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Première Division: USC Kita 2–1 Stade Malien Bamako

USC Kita beat Stade Malien Bamako 2-1 in Première Division on February 27, 2022.

The match was played at Stade Municipal de Kita in Kita.