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USA vs Serbia — Friendlies 2026

USA
USA
PST
00:00
Serbia
Serbia
1/31/2021FriendliesFriendlies · Friendlies 1

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

USA45%
×Draw25%
Serbia30%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

USA
1.56
Serbia
1.21

USA creates 29% more chances

Season form · 48 home / 17 away

creates per match

USA
1.71
Serbia
1.24

allows per match

USA
1.19
Serbia
1.41

finishing

USA+0.00on par
Serbia+0.00on par

Total goals

52%Over
  • Over52
  • Under48

Close call

Both teams score

55%Yes
  • Yes55
  • No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

USA ↓

Serbia →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–18%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–112%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
76%24%2.5
52%48%3.5
30%70%4.5
15%85%

Double chance

USA or draw
70%
USA or Serbia
75%
Draw or Serbia
55%

Winning margin

USA wins by 2+
23%
Serbia wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

USA 1+ goals
79%
USA 2+ goals
46%
USA 3+ goals
21%
Serbia 1+ goals
70%
Serbia 2+ goals
34%
Serbia 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

USA (draw refunded)
61%
Serbia (draw refunded)
39%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
44%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

USA at home — creates 1.71, concedes 1.19 · 48 matches

Serbia away — creates 1.24, concedes 1.41 · 17 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

USA attack 1.71 + Serbia defence 1.41 → ÷2 → 1.56

Serbia attack 1.24 + USA defence 1.19 → ÷2 → 1.21

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

USA scores more
45%
level
25%
Serbia scores more
30%

USA at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "USA will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Preview: USA host Serbia

January 31, 2021: USA take on Serbia in Friendlies. Track every goal, card, and substitution live on Scoreo as the action unfolds.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.