US Bougouba 1–0 Bougouni: Result & Stats

US Bougouba

FT

1 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Bougouni

11/11/2023

Première Division · Round 3Stade 26 Mars

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 59+ matches

US Bougouba49%

×Draw27%

Bougouni24%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

US BougoubaExpected goals in this matchBougouni

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.42

0.92

US Bougouba

1.42

Bougouni

0.92

US Bougouba creates 54% more chances

Season form · 59 home / 76 away

1.25

creates per match

0.57

1.27

allows per match

1.58

creates per match

US Bougouba

1.25

Bougouni

0.57

allows per match

US Bougouba

1.27

Bougouni

1.58

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

US Bougouba+0.00on par

Bougouni+0.00on par

Total goals

Under59
Over41

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No54
Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

US Bougouba ↓

Bougouni →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–010%

0–19%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–014%

1–113%

1–26%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–010%

2–19%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–05%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

90%10%1.5

68%32%2.5

41%59%3.5

21%79%4.5

9%91%

Double chance

US Bougouba or draw

76%

US Bougouba or Bougouni

73%

Draw or Bougouni

51%

Winning margin

US Bougouba wins by 2+

24%

Bougouni wins by 2+

8%

Team goals

US Bougouba 1+ goals

76%

US Bougouba 2+ goals

41%

US Bougouba 3+ goals

17%

Bougouni 1+ goals

60%

Bougouni 2+ goals

23%

Bougouni 3+ goals

7%

Draw no bet

US Bougouba (draw refunded)

67%

Bougouni (draw refunded)

33%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

33%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

US Bougouba at home — creates 1.25, concedes 1.27 · 59 matches

Bougouni away — creates 0.57, concedes 1.58 · 76 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

US Bougouba attack 1.25 + Bougouni defence 1.58 → ÷2 → 1.42

Bougouni attack 0.57 + US Bougouba defence 1.27 → ÷2 → 0.92

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

US Bougouba scores more

49%

level

27%

Bougouni scores more

24%

US Bougouba at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "US Bougouba will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff