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Urraca vs Tuilla — Tercera División RFEF - Group 2 2019

Urraca
Urraca
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Tuilla
Tuilla
12/12/2021Tercera División RFEF - Group 2Tercera División RFEF - Group 2 · Group 2 - 18Campo de La Corredoria

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 79+ matches

Urraca39%
×Draw28%
Tuilla33%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Urraca
1.24
Tuilla
1.10

Urraca creates 13% more chances

Season form · 79 home / 110 away

creates per match

Urraca
1.03
Tuilla
1.17

allows per match

Urraca
1.03
Tuilla
1.45

finishing

Urraca+0.00on par
Tuilla+0.00on par

Total goals

59%Under
  • Under59
  • Over41

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

53%No
  • No53
  • Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Urraca ↓

Tuilla →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–111%
0–26%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–012%
1–113%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–18%
2–24%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
68%32%2.5
41%59%3.5
21%79%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

Urraca or draw
67%
Urraca or Tuilla
72%
Draw or Tuilla
61%

Winning margin

Urraca wins by 2+
17%
Tuilla wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

Urraca 1+ goals
71%
Urraca 2+ goals
35%
Urraca 3+ goals
13%
Tuilla 1+ goals
67%
Tuilla 2+ goals
30%
Tuilla 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

Urraca (draw refunded)
55%
Tuilla (draw refunded)
45%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
34%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Urraca at home — creates 1.03, concedes 1.03 · 79 matches

Tuilla away — creates 1.17, concedes 1.45 · 110 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Urraca attack 1.03 + Tuilla defence 1.45 → ÷2 → 1.24

Tuilla attack 1.17 + Urraca defence 1.03 → ÷2 → 1.10

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Urraca scores more
39%
level
28%
Tuilla scores more
33%

Urraca at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Urraca will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Urraca 0 – 1 Tuilla

Tuilla beat Urraca 1-0 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 2 on December 12, 2021.

The match was played at Campo de La Corredoria in Posada de Llanes.