Urraca 0–1 Lenense: Result & Stats

Urraca

0 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

Lenense

4/11/2021

Tercera División RFEF - Group 2 · Group 2 - 2nd Phase - 2Campo de La Corredoria

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 79+ matches

Urraca48%

×Draw28%

Lenense25%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

UrracaExpected goals in this matchLenense

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.37

0.90

Urraca

1.37

Lenense

0.90

Urraca creates 52% more chances

Season form · 79 home / 96 away

1.03

creates per match

0.76

1.03

allows per match

1.71

creates per match

Urraca

1.03

Lenense

0.76

allows per match

Urraca

1.03

Lenense

1.71

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Urraca+0.00on par

Lenense+0.00on par

Total goals

Under60
Over40

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No56
Yes44

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Urraca ↓

Lenense →

0–010%

0–19%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1–014%

1–113%

1–26%

1–32%

1–40%

2–010%

2–19%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3–04%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4–02%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

90%10%1.5

66%34%2.5

40%60%3.5

19%81%4.5

8%92%

Double chance

Urraca or draw

75%

Urraca or Lenense

72%

Draw or Lenense

52%

Winning margin

Urraca wins by 2+

23%

Lenense wins by 2+

Team goals

Urraca 1+ goals

75%

Urraca 2+ goals

40%

Urraca 3+ goals

16%

Lenense 1+ goals

59%

Lenense 2+ goals

23%

Lenense 3+ goals

Draw no bet

Urraca (draw refunded)

66%

Lenense (draw refunded)

34%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

32%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Urraca at home — creates 1.03, concedes 1.03 · 79 matches

Lenense away — creates 0.76, concedes 1.71 · 96 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Urraca attack 1.03 + Lenense defence 1.71 → ÷2 → 1.37

Lenense attack 0.76 + Urraca defence 1.03 → ÷2 → 0.90

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 48%?"

Urraca scores more

48%

level

28%

Lenense scores more

25%

Urraca at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Urraca will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff