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Urraca vs Caudal — Tercera División RFEF - Group 2 2019

Urraca
Urraca
FT
1 – 1
HT: 1 – 0
Caudal
Caudal
5/5/2021Tercera División RFEF - Group 2Tercera División RFEF - Group 2 · Group 2 - 2nd Phase - 4Campo de La Corredoria

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 79+ matches

Urraca30%
×Draw29%
Caudal40%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Urraca
0.99
Caudal
1.19

Caudal creates 20% more chances

Season form · 79 home / 113 away

creates per match

Urraca
1.03
Caudal
1.35

allows per match

Urraca
1.03
Caudal
0.96

finishing

Urraca+0.00on par
Caudal+0.00on par

Total goals

63%Under
  • Under63
  • Over37

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

56%No
  • No56
  • Yes44

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Urraca ↓

Caudal →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–011%
0–113%
0–28%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–17%
2–24%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–02%
3–12%
3–21%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
89%11%1.5
64%36%2.5
37%63%3.5
18%82%4.5
7%93%

Double chance

Urraca or draw
60%
Urraca or Caudal
71%
Draw or Caudal
70%

Winning margin

Urraca wins by 2+
11%
Caudal wins by 2+
17%

Team goals

Urraca 1+ goals
63%
Urraca 2+ goals
26%
Urraca 3+ goals
8%
Caudal 1+ goals
70%
Caudal 2+ goals
33%
Caudal 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

Urraca (draw refunded)
43%
Caudal (draw refunded)
57%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
30%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Urraca at home — creates 1.03, concedes 1.03 · 79 matches

Caudal away — creates 1.35, concedes 0.96 · 113 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Urraca attack 1.03 + Caudal defence 0.96 → ÷2 → 0.99

Caudal attack 1.35 + Urraca defence 1.03 → ÷2 → 1.19

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Urraca scores more
30%
level
29%
Caudal scores more
40%

Caudal at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Caudal will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Tercera División RFEF - Group 2: Urraca 1–1 Caudal

Urraca and Caudal drew 1-1 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 2 on May 5, 2021.

The match was played at Campo de La Corredoria in Posada de Llanes.