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Urena SC vs Fundación Lara Deportiva — Segunda División 2018

Urena SC
Urena SC
FT
3 – 0
HT: 3 – 0
Fundación Lara Deportiva
Fundación Lara Deportiva
9/10/2023Segunda DivisiónSegunda División · Clausura - 11Polideportivo Humberto Laurano

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 77+ matches

Urena SC46%
×Draw27%
Fundación Lara Deportiva28%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Urena SC
1.42
Fundación Lara Deportiva
1.04

Urena SC creates 37% more chances

Season form · 112 home / 77 away

creates per match

Urena SC
1.53
Fundación Lara Deportiva
1.00

allows per match

Urena SC
1.07
Fundación Lara Deportiva
1.30

finishing

Urena SC+0.00on par
Fundación Lara Deportiva+0.00on par

Total goals

55%Under
  • Under55
  • Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

51%No
  • No51
  • Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Urena SC ↓

Fundación Lara Deportiva →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–19%
0–25%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–113%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
70%30%2.5
45%55%3.5
23%77%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Urena SC or draw
72%
Urena SC or Fundación Lara Deportiva
73%
Draw or Fundación Lara Deportiva
54%

Winning margin

Urena SC wins by 2+
22%
Fundación Lara Deportiva wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Urena SC 1+ goals
76%
Urena SC 2+ goals
41%
Urena SC 3+ goals
17%
Fundación Lara Deportiva 1+ goals
65%
Fundación Lara Deportiva 2+ goals
28%
Fundación Lara Deportiva 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Urena SC (draw refunded)
62%
Fundación Lara Deportiva (draw refunded)
38%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
36%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Urena SC at home — creates 1.53, concedes 1.07 · 112 matches

Fundación Lara Deportiva away — creates 1.00, concedes 1.30 · 77 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Urena SC attack 1.53 + Fundación Lara Deportiva defence 1.30 → ÷2 → 1.42

Fundación Lara Deportiva attack 1.00 + Urena SC defence 1.07 → ÷2 → 1.04

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Urena SC scores more
46%
level
27%
Fundación Lara Deportiva scores more
28%

Urena SC at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Urena SC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Urena SC vs Fundación Lara Deportiva

Urena SC beat Fundación Lara Deportiva 3-0 in Segunda División on September 10, 2023.

The match was played at Polideportivo Humberto Laurano in La Fría.