Urena SC 1–2 Deportivo JBL del Zulia

Urena SC

FT

1 – 2

Deportivo JBL del Zulia

5/2/2018

Segunda División · Apertura - 12Complejo Deportivo UCAT (San Cristóbal)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 44+ matches

Urena SC55%

×Draw23%

Deportivo JBL del Zulia22%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Urena SCExpected goals in this matchDeportivo JBL del Zulia

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.79

1.04

Urena SC

1.79

Deportivo JBL del Zulia

1.04

Urena SC creates 72% more chances

Season form · 112 home / 44 away

1.53

creates per match

1.02

1.07

allows per match

2.05

creates per match

Urena SC

1.53

Deportivo JBL del Zulia

1.02

allows per match

Urena SC

1.07

Deportivo JBL del Zulia

2.05

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Urena SC+0.00on par

Deportivo JBL del Zulia+0.00on par

Total goals

Over54
Under46

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes54
No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Urena SC ↓

Deportivo JBL del Zulia →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–16%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–011%

1–111%

1–26%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–09%

2–110%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–06%

3–16%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–03%

4–13%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

77%23%2.5

54%46%3.5

31%69%4.5

15%85%

Double chance

Urena SC or draw

78%

Urena SC or Deportivo JBL del Zulia

77%

Draw or Deportivo JBL del Zulia

45%

Winning margin

Urena SC wins by 2+

31%

Deportivo JBL del Zulia wins by 2+

8%

Team goals

Urena SC 1+ goals

83%

Urena SC 2+ goals

53%

Urena SC 3+ goals

26%

Deportivo JBL del Zulia 1+ goals

65%

Deportivo JBL del Zulia 2+ goals

28%

Deportivo JBL del Zulia 3+ goals

9%

Draw no bet

Urena SC (draw refunded)

71%

Deportivo JBL del Zulia (draw refunded)

29%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

43%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Urena SC at home — creates 1.53, concedes 1.07 · 112 matches

Deportivo JBL del Zulia away — creates 1.02, concedes 2.05 · 44 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Urena SC attack 1.53 + Deportivo JBL del Zulia defence 2.05 → ÷2 → 1.79

Deportivo JBL del Zulia attack 1.02 + Urena SC defence 1.07 → ÷2 → 1.04

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 55%?"

Urena SC scores more

55%

level

23%

Deportivo JBL del Zulia scores more

22%

Urena SC at 55% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 55% does not mean "Urena SC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff