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Urena SC vs CD Hermanos Colmenarez — Segunda División 2018

Urena SC
Urena SC
FT
2 – 2
CD Hermanos Colmenarez
CD Hermanos Colmenarez
5/11/2019Segunda DivisiónSegunda División · Apertura - 14Complejo Deportivo UCAT (San Cristóbal)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 37+ matches

Urena SC45%
×Draw25%
CD Hermanos Colmenarez31%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Urena SC
1.59
CD Hermanos Colmenarez
1.28

Urena SC creates 24% more chances

Season form · 112 home / 37 away

creates per match

Urena SC
1.53
CD Hermanos Colmenarez
1.49

allows per match

Urena SC
1.07
CD Hermanos Colmenarez
1.65

finishing

Urena SC+0.00on par
CD Hermanos Colmenarez+0.00on par

Total goals

55%Over
  • Over55
  • Under45

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

57%Yes
  • Yes57
  • No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Urena SC ↓

CD Hermanos Colmenarez →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–17%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–112%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
78%22%2.5
55%45%3.5
32%68%4.5
16%84%

Double chance

Urena SC or draw
69%
Urena SC or CD Hermanos Colmenarez
75%
Draw or CD Hermanos Colmenarez
55%

Winning margin

Urena SC wins by 2+
23%
CD Hermanos Colmenarez wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

Urena SC 1+ goals
80%
Urena SC 2+ goals
47%
Urena SC 3+ goals
21%
CD Hermanos Colmenarez 1+ goals
72%
CD Hermanos Colmenarez 2+ goals
37%
CD Hermanos Colmenarez 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

Urena SC (draw refunded)
59%
CD Hermanos Colmenarez (draw refunded)
41%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
46%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Urena SC at home — creates 1.53, concedes 1.07 · 112 matches

CD Hermanos Colmenarez away — creates 1.49, concedes 1.65 · 37 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Urena SC attack 1.53 + CD Hermanos Colmenarez defence 1.65 → ÷2 → 1.59

CD Hermanos Colmenarez attack 1.49 + Urena SC defence 1.07 → ÷2 → 1.28

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Urena SC scores more
45%
level
25%
CD Hermanos Colmenarez scores more
31%

Urena SC at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Urena SC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Urena SC vs CD Hermanos Colmenarez

Urena SC and CD Hermanos Colmenarez drew 2-2 in Segunda División on May 11, 2019.

The match was played at Complejo Deportivo UCAT (San Cristóbal).