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Urduliz vs Lagun Onak — Tercera División RFEF - Group 4 2019

Urduliz
Urduliz
FT
2 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Lagun Onak
Lagun Onak
1/3/2021Tercera División RFEF - Group 4Tercera División RFEF - Group 4 · Group 4 - 11Estadio Iparralde

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 94+ matches

Urduliz40%
×Draw29%
Lagun Onak31%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Urduliz
1.21
Lagun Onak
1.04

Urduliz creates 16% more chances

Season form · 94 home / 114 away

creates per match

Urduliz
1.09
Lagun Onak
0.97

allows per match

Urduliz
1.10
Lagun Onak
1.32

finishing

Urduliz+0.00on par
Lagun Onak+0.00on par

Total goals

61%Under
  • Under61
  • Over39

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

55%No
  • No55
  • Yes45

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Urduliz ↓

Lagun Onak →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–011%
0–111%
0–26%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–013%
1–113%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–18%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
89%11%1.5
66%34%2.5
39%61%3.5
19%81%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

Urduliz or draw
69%
Urduliz or Lagun Onak
71%
Draw or Lagun Onak
60%

Winning margin

Urduliz wins by 2+
17%
Lagun Onak wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Urduliz 1+ goals
70%
Urduliz 2+ goals
34%
Urduliz 3+ goals
12%
Lagun Onak 1+ goals
65%
Lagun Onak 2+ goals
28%
Lagun Onak 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Urduliz (draw refunded)
56%
Lagun Onak (draw refunded)
44%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
32%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Urduliz at home — creates 1.09, concedes 1.10 · 94 matches

Lagun Onak away — creates 0.97, concedes 1.32 · 114 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Urduliz attack 1.09 + Lagun Onak defence 1.32 → ÷2 → 1.21

Lagun Onak attack 0.97 + Urduliz defence 1.10 → ÷2 → 1.04

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Urduliz scores more
40%
level
29%
Lagun Onak scores more
31%

Urduliz at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Urduliz will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Tercera División RFEF - Group 4: Urduliz 2–0 Lagun Onak

Urduliz beat Lagun Onak 2-0 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 4 on January 3, 2021.

The match was played at Estadio Iparralde in Urduliz.