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Urawa vs Tokyo Verdy — J1 League 2018

Urawa
Urawa
FT
1 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
Tokyo Verdy
Tokyo Verdy
3/3/2024J1 LeagueJ1 League · Round 2Saitama Stadium 2002

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 46+ matches

Urawa47%
×Draw27%
Tokyo Verdy26%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Urawa
1.40
Tokyo Verdy
0.96

Urawa creates 46% more chances

Season form · 152 home / 46 away

creates per match

Urawa
1.49
Tokyo Verdy
0.85

allows per match

Urawa
1.07
Tokyo Verdy
1.30

finishing

Urawa+0.00on par
Tokyo Verdy+0.00on par

Total goals

58%Under
  • Under58
  • Over42

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

54%No
  • No54
  • Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Urawa ↓

Tokyo Verdy →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–19%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–09%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
68%32%2.5
42%58%3.5
21%79%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

Urawa or draw
74%
Urawa or Tokyo Verdy
73%
Draw or Tokyo Verdy
53%

Winning margin

Urawa wins by 2+
23%
Tokyo Verdy wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Urawa 1+ goals
75%
Urawa 2+ goals
41%
Urawa 3+ goals
17%
Tokyo Verdy 1+ goals
62%
Tokyo Verdy 2+ goals
25%
Tokyo Verdy 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Urawa (draw refunded)
65%
Tokyo Verdy (draw refunded)
35%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
34%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Urawa at home — creates 1.49, concedes 1.07 · 152 matches

Tokyo Verdy away — creates 0.85, concedes 1.30 · 46 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Urawa attack 1.49 + Tokyo Verdy defence 1.30 → ÷2 → 1.40

Tokyo Verdy attack 0.85 + Urawa defence 1.07 → ÷2 → 0.96

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Urawa scores more
47%
level
27%
Tokyo Verdy scores more
26%

Urawa at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Urawa will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Urawa vs Tokyo Verdy

Urawa and Tokyo Verdy drew 1-1 in J1 League on March 3, 2024.

The match was played at Saitama Stadium 2002 in Saitama.