Urawa 2–2 Kyoto Sanga: Result & Stats | J1 League

Urawa

FT

2 – 2

HT: 1 – 0

Kyoto Sanga

7/6/2022

J1 League · Round 20Saitama Stadium 2002

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 6+ matches

Urawa40%

×Draw28%

Kyoto Sanga32%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

UrawaExpected goals in this matchKyoto Sanga

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.25

1.09

Urawa

1.25

Kyoto Sanga

1.09

Urawa creates 15% more chances

Season form · 6 home / 8 away

0.86

creates per match

1.28

0.90

allows per match

1.65

creates per match

Urawa

0.86

Kyoto Sanga

1.28

allows per match

Urawa

0.90

Kyoto Sanga

1.65

-0.03on par

finishing

+0.35scores more than expected

finishing

Urawa-0.03on par

Kyoto Sanga+0.35scores more

Total goals

Under59
Over41

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No53
Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Urawa ↓

Kyoto Sanga →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–010%

0–111%

0–26%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–012%

1–113%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–18%

2–24%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–03%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

90%10%1.5

68%32%2.5

41%59%3.5

21%79%4.5

9%91%

Double chance

Urawa or draw

68%

Urawa or Kyoto Sanga

72%

Draw or Kyoto Sanga

60%

Winning margin

Urawa wins by 2+

18%

Kyoto Sanga wins by 2+

13%

Team goals

Urawa 1+ goals

71%

Urawa 2+ goals

36%

Urawa 3+ goals

13%

Kyoto Sanga 1+ goals

66%

Kyoto Sanga 2+ goals

30%

Kyoto Sanga 3+ goals

10%

Draw no bet

Urawa (draw refunded)

55%

Kyoto Sanga (draw refunded)

45%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

34%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Urawa at home — creates 0.86, concedes 0.90 · 6 matches

Kyoto Sanga away — creates 1.28, concedes 1.65 · 8 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Urawa attack 0.86 + Kyoto Sanga defence 1.65 → ÷2 → 1.25

Kyoto Sanga attack 1.28 + Urawa defence 0.90 → ÷2 → 1.09

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Urawa scores more

40%

level

28%

Kyoto Sanga scores more

32%

Urawa at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Urawa will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff