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Urania Baška Voda vs Primorac Biograd — Third NL - Jug 2019

Urania Baška Voda
Urania Baška Voda
CANC
00:00
Primorac Biograd
Primorac Biograd
3/29/2020Third NL - JugThird NL - Jug · South - 21Športski Centar Ante Jurišić

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 57+ matches

Urania Baška Voda50%
×Draw24%
Primorac Biograd26%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Urania Baška Voda
1.66
Primorac Biograd
1.12

Urania Baška Voda creates 48% more chances

Season form · 57 home / 102 away

creates per match

Urania Baška Voda
1.54
Primorac Biograd
1.03

allows per match

Urania Baška Voda
1.21
Primorac Biograd
1.78

finishing

Urania Baška Voda+0.00on par
Primorac Biograd+0.00on par

Total goals

52%Over
  • Over52
  • Under48

Close call

Both teams score

55%Yes
  • Yes55
  • No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Urania Baška Voda ↓

Primorac Biograd →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–17%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–010%
1–112%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
77%23%2.5
52%48%3.5
30%70%4.5
15%85%

Double chance

Urania Baška Voda or draw
74%
Urania Baška Voda or Primorac Biograd
76%
Draw or Primorac Biograd
50%

Winning margin

Urania Baška Voda wins by 2+
27%
Primorac Biograd wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Urania Baška Voda 1+ goals
81%
Urania Baška Voda 2+ goals
49%
Urania Baška Voda 3+ goals
23%
Primorac Biograd 1+ goals
67%
Primorac Biograd 2+ goals
31%
Primorac Biograd 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

Urania Baška Voda (draw refunded)
66%
Primorac Biograd (draw refunded)
34%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
43%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Urania Baška Voda at home — creates 1.54, concedes 1.21 · 57 matches

Primorac Biograd away — creates 1.03, concedes 1.78 · 102 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Urania Baška Voda attack 1.54 + Primorac Biograd defence 1.78 → ÷2 → 1.66

Primorac Biograd attack 1.03 + Urania Baška Voda defence 1.21 → ÷2 → 1.12

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Urania Baška Voda scores more
50%
level
24%
Primorac Biograd scores more
26%

Urania Baška Voda at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Urania Baška Voda will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Urania Baška Voda vs Primorac Biograd — Match Preview

Urania Baška Voda face Primorac Biograd on March 29, 2020 in this Third NL - Jug fixture. Get live scores, lineups, and real-time match statistics here when the game starts.

Urania Baška Voda host Primorac Biograd at Športski Centar Ante Jurišić.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.