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Ural vs Enisey — First League 2024

Ural
Ural
Preview
12:00
Enisey
Enisey
7/19/2026First LeagueFirst League · Round 2Yekaterinburg Arena
Big match
52%
Ural
model favours
52%25%23%

Ural win just 30% against the top half (vs 67% against the bottom)

brightest fact of this match

1–0
likely score
53%
under 2.5 goals
49%
both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 35+ matches

Ural52%
×Draw25%
Enisey23%
✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
48.6%
Always home
43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Ural
1.58
Enisey
0.96

Ural creates 65% more chances

Season form · 35 home / 39 away

creates per match

Ural
1.71
Enisey
1.03

allows per match

Ural
0.89
Enisey
1.46

finishing

Ural+0.00on par
Enisey+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Under
  • Under53
  • Over47

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

51%No
  • No51
  • Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Ural ↓

Enisey →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–18%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–112%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–19%
2–25%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–15%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
72%28%2.5
47%53%3.5
25%75%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Ural or draw
77%
Ural or Enisey
75%
Draw or Enisey
48%

Winning margin

Ural wins by 2+
27%
Enisey wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Ural 1+ goals
79%
Ural 2+ goals
47%
Ural 3+ goals
21%
Enisey 1+ goals
62%
Enisey 2+ goals
25%
Enisey 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Ural (draw refunded)
69%
Enisey (draw refunded)
31%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
37%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Ural at home — creates 1.71, concedes 0.89 · 35 matches

Enisey away — creates 1.03, concedes 1.46 · 39 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Ural attack 1.71 + Enisey defence 1.46 → ÷2 → 1.58

Enisey attack 1.03 + Ural defence 0.89 → ÷2 → 0.96

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 52%?"

Ural scores more
52%
level
25%
Enisey scores more
23%

Ural at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "Ural will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Insights

  • Their last 5 meetings averaged 4.6 goals

Based on historical data — not a prediction.

Form
Ural
LDWLL
Enisey
WDWDD

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Ural vs Enisey — Match Preview

Ural face Enisey on July 19, 2026 in this First League fixture. Get live scores, lineups, and real-time match statistics here when the game starts.

Ural host Enisey at Yekaterinburg Arena.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.