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Ural U20 vs Fakel U19 — Youth Championship 2026

Ural U20
Ural U20
FT
1 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Fakel U19
Fakel U19
11/24/2023Youth ChampionshipYouth Championship · Round 18Sport Baza Bazhoviya

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 60+ matches

Ural U2040%
×Draw23%
Fakel U1937%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Ural U20
1.66
Fakel U19
1.58

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 99 home / 60 away

creates per match

Ural U20
1.57
Fakel U19
1.12

allows per match

Ural U20
2.05
Fakel U19
1.75

finishing

Ural U20+0.00on par
Fakel U19+0.00on par

Total goals

63%Over
  • Over63
  • Under37

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

64%Yes
  • Yes64
  • No36

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Ural U20 ↓

Fakel U19 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–16%
0–25%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–07%
1–110%
1–28%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–19%
2–27%
2–34%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–15%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
83%17%2.5
63%37%3.5
40%60%4.5
22%78%

Double chance

Ural U20 or draw
63%
Ural U20 or Fakel U19
77%
Draw or Fakel U19
60%

Winning margin

Ural U20 wins by 2+
20%
Fakel U19 wins by 2+
18%

Team goals

Ural U20 1+ goals
81%
Ural U20 2+ goals
49%
Ural U20 3+ goals
23%
Fakel U19 1+ goals
79%
Fakel U19 2+ goals
47%
Fakel U19 3+ goals
21%

Draw no bet

Ural U20 (draw refunded)
52%
Fakel U19 (draw refunded)
48%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
54%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Ural U20 at home — creates 1.57, concedes 2.05 · 99 matches

Fakel U19 away — creates 1.12, concedes 1.75 · 60 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Ural U20 attack 1.57 + Fakel U19 defence 1.75 → ÷2 → 1.66

Fakel U19 attack 1.12 + Ural U20 defence 2.05 → ÷2 → 1.58

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Ural U20 scores more
40%
level
23%
Fakel U19 scores more
37%

Ural U20 at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Ural U20 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Youth Championship: Ural U20 1–0 Fakel U19

Ural U20 beat Fakel U19 1-0 in Youth Championship on November 24, 2023.

The match was played at Sport Baza Bazhoviya in Sysert.