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URA vs BUL — Premier League 2019

URA
URA
FT
2 – 2
BUL
BUL
11/20/2021Premier LeaguePremier League · Round 6Ndejje Uni - Luwero

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 100+ matches

URA44%
×Draw28%
BUL28%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

URA
1.29
BUL
0.96

URA creates 34% more chances

Season form · 100 home / 100 away

creates per match

URA
1.51
BUL
1.17

allows per match

URA
0.76
BUL
1.08

finishing

URA+0.00on par
BUL+0.00on par

Total goals

61%Under
  • Under61
  • Over39

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

55%No
  • No55
  • Yes45

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

URA ↓

BUL →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–011%
0–110%
0–25%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–014%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–09%
2–18%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
89%11%1.5
66%34%2.5
39%61%3.5
19%81%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

URA or draw
72%
URA or BUL
72%
Draw or BUL
56%

Winning margin

URA wins by 2+
20%
BUL wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

URA 1+ goals
72%
URA 2+ goals
37%
URA 3+ goals
14%
BUL 1+ goals
62%
BUL 2+ goals
25%
BUL 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

URA (draw refunded)
61%
BUL (draw refunded)
39%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
32%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

URA at home — creates 1.51, concedes 0.76 · 100 matches

BUL away — creates 1.17, concedes 1.08 · 100 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

URA attack 1.51 + BUL defence 1.08 → ÷2 → 1.29

BUL attack 1.17 + URA defence 0.76 → ÷2 → 0.96

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

URA scores more
44%
level
28%
BUL scores more
28%

URA at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "URA will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Premier League: URA 2–2 BUL

URA and BUL drew 2-2 in Premier League on November 20, 2021.

The match was played at Ndejje Uni - Luwero in Luwero.