Uppsala W 2–4 Eskilstuna United W: Result & Stats

Uppsala W

FT

2 – 4

HT: 0 – 2

Eskilstuna United W

10/4/2020

Damallsvenskan · Round 17Studenternas IP

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 29+ matches

Uppsala W32%

×Draw26%

Eskilstuna United W43%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Uppsala WExpected goals in this matchEskilstuna United W

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.21

1.45

Uppsala W

1.21

Eskilstuna United W

1.45

Eskilstuna United W creates 20% more chances

Season form · 29 home / 40 away

1.10

creates per match

1.07

1.83

allows per match

1.32

creates per match

Uppsala W

1.10

Eskilstuna United W

1.07

allows per match

Uppsala W

1.83

Eskilstuna United W

1.32

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Uppsala W+0.00on par

Eskilstuna United W+0.00on par

Total goals

Under50
Over50

Close call

Both teams score

Yes54
No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Uppsala W ↓

Eskilstuna United W →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–110%

0–27%

0–34%

0–41%

1

1–08%

1–112%

1–29%

1–34%

1–42%

2

2–05%

2–17%

2–25%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–02%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

74%26%2.5

50%50%3.5

28%72%4.5

13%87%

Double chance

Uppsala W or draw

57%

Uppsala W or Eskilstuna United W

74%

Draw or Eskilstuna United W

68%

Winning margin

Uppsala W wins by 2+

13%

Eskilstuna United W wins by 2+

21%

Team goals

Uppsala W 1+ goals

70%

Uppsala W 2+ goals

34%

Uppsala W 3+ goals

12%

Eskilstuna United W 1+ goals

77%

Eskilstuna United W 2+ goals

42%

Eskilstuna United W 3+ goals

18%

Draw no bet

Uppsala W (draw refunded)

43%

Eskilstuna United W (draw refunded)

57%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

41%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Uppsala W at home — creates 1.10, concedes 1.83 · 29 matches

Eskilstuna United W away — creates 1.07, concedes 1.32 · 40 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Uppsala W attack 1.10 + Eskilstuna United W defence 1.32 → ÷2 → 1.21

Eskilstuna United W attack 1.07 + Uppsala W defence 1.83 → ÷2 → 1.45

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Uppsala W scores more

32%

level

26%

Eskilstuna United W scores more

43%

Eskilstuna United W at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Eskilstuna United W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff