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UPI-ONM vs Police — Championnat National 2019

UPI-ONM
UPI-ONM
FT
2 – 2
Police
Police
5/8/2022Championnat NationalChampionnat National · Relegation Round - 11Terrain Campus Abomey Calavi

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 75+ matches

UPI-ONM40%
×Draw28%
Police32%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

UPI-ONM
1.25
Police
1.10

UPI-ONM creates 14% more chances

Season form · 85 home / 75 away

creates per match

UPI-ONM
0.89
Police
0.88

allows per match

UPI-ONM
1.32
Police
1.61

finishing

UPI-ONM+0.00on par
Police+0.00on par

Total goals

58%Under
  • Under58
  • Over42

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

52%No
  • No52
  • Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

UPI-ONM ↓

Police →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–110%
0–26%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–012%
1–113%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
68%32%2.5
42%58%3.5
21%79%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

UPI-ONM or draw
68%
UPI-ONM or Police
72%
Draw or Police
60%

Winning margin

UPI-ONM wins by 2+
17%
Police wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

UPI-ONM 1+ goals
71%
UPI-ONM 2+ goals
36%
UPI-ONM 3+ goals
13%
Police 1+ goals
67%
Police 2+ goals
30%
Police 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

UPI-ONM (draw refunded)
55%
Police (draw refunded)
45%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
34%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

UPI-ONM at home — creates 0.89, concedes 1.32 · 85 matches

Police away — creates 0.88, concedes 1.61 · 75 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

UPI-ONM attack 0.89 + Police defence 1.61 → ÷2 → 1.25

Police attack 0.88 + UPI-ONM defence 1.32 → ÷2 → 1.10

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

UPI-ONM scores more
40%
level
28%
Police scores more
32%

UPI-ONM at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "UPI-ONM will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: UPI-ONM vs Police

UPI-ONM and Police drew 2-2 in Championnat National on May 8, 2022.

The match was played at Terrain Campus Abomey Calavi in Abomey Calavi.