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UPI-ONM vs JSP — Championnat National 2019

UPI-ONM
UPI-ONM
FT
1 – 3
JSP
JSP
4/25/2021Championnat NationalChampionnat National · Relegation Round - 1Terrain Campus Abomey Calavi

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 90+ matches

UPI-ONM38%
×Draw29%
JSP34%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

UPI-ONM
1.15
JSP
1.07

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 90 home / 110 away

creates per match

UPI-ONM
0.94
JSP
0.82

allows per match

UPI-ONM
1.32
JSP
1.36

finishing

UPI-ONM+0.00on par
JSP+0.00on par

Total goals

62%Under
  • Under62
  • Over38

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

55%No
  • No55
  • Yes45

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

UPI-ONM ↓

JSP →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–011%
0–112%
0–26%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–012%
1–113%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–18%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
89%11%1.5
65%35%2.5
38%62%3.5
18%82%4.5
7%93%

Double chance

UPI-ONM or draw
66%
UPI-ONM or JSP
71%
Draw or JSP
62%

Winning margin

UPI-ONM wins by 2+
16%
JSP wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

UPI-ONM 1+ goals
68%
UPI-ONM 2+ goals
32%
UPI-ONM 3+ goals
11%
JSP 1+ goals
66%
JSP 2+ goals
29%
JSP 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

UPI-ONM (draw refunded)
53%
JSP (draw refunded)
47%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
32%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

UPI-ONM at home — creates 0.94, concedes 1.32 · 90 matches

JSP away — creates 0.82, concedes 1.36 · 110 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

UPI-ONM attack 0.94 + JSP defence 1.36 → ÷2 → 1.15

JSP attack 0.82 + UPI-ONM defence 1.32 → ÷2 → 1.07

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

UPI-ONM scores more
38%
level
29%
JSP scores more
34%

UPI-ONM at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "UPI-ONM will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: UPI-ONM vs JSP

JSP beat UPI-ONM 3-1 in Championnat National on April 25, 2021.

The match was played at Terrain Campus Abomey Calavi in Abomey Calavi.