Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

UPDF vs Express — Premier League 2019

UPDF
UPDF
FT
1 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
Express
Express
10/27/2023Premier LeaguePremier League · Round 5Bombo Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 87+ matches

UPDF39%
×Draw30%
Express31%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

UPDF
1.13
Express
0.96

UPDF creates 18% more chances

Season form · 87 home / 101 away

creates per match

UPDF
1.00
Express
0.93

allows per match

UPDF
0.99
Express
1.26

finishing

UPDF+0.00on par
Express+0.00on par

Total goals

65%Under
  • Under65
  • Over35

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

58%No
  • No58
  • Yes42

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

UPDF ↓

Express →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–012%
0–112%
0–26%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–014%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–08%
2–18%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
88%12%1.5
62%38%2.5
35%65%3.5
16%84%4.5
6%94%

Double chance

UPDF or draw
69%
UPDF or Express
70%
Draw or Express
61%

Winning margin

UPDF wins by 2+
16%
Express wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

UPDF 1+ goals
68%
UPDF 2+ goals
31%
UPDF 3+ goals
11%
Express 1+ goals
62%
Express 2+ goals
25%
Express 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

UPDF (draw refunded)
56%
Express (draw refunded)
44%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
28%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

UPDF at home — creates 1.00, concedes 0.99 · 87 matches

Express away — creates 0.93, concedes 1.26 · 101 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

UPDF attack 1.00 + Express defence 1.26 → ÷2 → 1.13

Express attack 0.93 + UPDF defence 0.99 → ÷2 → 0.96

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

UPDF scores more
39%
level
30%
Express scores more
31%

UPDF at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "UPDF will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Premier League: UPDF 1–1 Express

UPDF and Express drew 1-1 in Premier League on October 27, 2023.

The match was played at Bombo Stadium in Bombo.