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UOR №5 U20 vs Ural U20 — Youth Championship 2026

UOR №5 U20
UOR №5 U20
FT
3 – 3
HT: 0 – 1
Ural U20
Ural U20
4/15/2022Youth ChampionshipYouth Championship · Lower Table Round - 5Stadion Master-Saturn

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 66+ matches

UOR №5 U2038%
×Draw23%
Ural U2039%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

UOR №5 U20
1.66
Ural U20
1.68

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 66 home / 99 away

creates per match

UOR №5 U20
1.26
Ural U20
1.01

allows per match

UOR №5 U20
2.35
Ural U20
2.06

finishing

UOR №5 U20+0.00on par
Ural U20+0.00on par

Total goals

65%Over
  • Over65
  • Under35

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

66%Yes
  • Yes66
  • No34

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

UOR №5 U20 ↓

Ural U20 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–16%
0–25%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–06%
1–110%
1–28%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–03%
3–15%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
85%15%2.5
65%35%3.5
43%57%4.5
24%76%

Double chance

UOR №5 U20 or draw
61%
UOR №5 U20 or Ural U20
77%
Draw or Ural U20
62%

Winning margin

UOR №5 U20 wins by 2+
19%
Ural U20 wins by 2+
20%

Team goals

UOR №5 U20 1+ goals
81%
UOR №5 U20 2+ goals
49%
UOR №5 U20 3+ goals
23%
Ural U20 1+ goals
81%
Ural U20 2+ goals
50%
Ural U20 3+ goals
24%

Draw no bet

UOR №5 U20 (draw refunded)
49%
Ural U20 (draw refunded)
51%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
56%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

UOR №5 U20 at home — creates 1.26, concedes 2.35 · 66 matches

Ural U20 away — creates 1.01, concedes 2.06 · 99 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

UOR №5 U20 attack 1.26 + Ural U20 defence 2.06 → ÷2 → 1.66

Ural U20 attack 1.01 + UOR №5 U20 defence 2.35 → ÷2 → 1.68

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

UOR №5 U20 scores more
38%
level
23%
Ural U20 scores more
39%

Ural U20 at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Ural U20 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Youth Championship: UOR №5 U20 3–3 Ural U20

UOR №5 U20 and Ural U20 drew 3-3 in Youth Championship on April 15, 2022.

The match was played at Stadion Master-Saturn in Yegoryevsk.