Unterhaching U19 1–1 Augsburg U19: Result & Stats

Unterhaching U19

FT

1 – 1

HT: 0 – 1

Augsburg U19

D. Haimerl 78'

D. Dell'Erba 11'

3/6/2022

U19 Bundesliga · Süd / Südwest - 17Sportpark Unterhaching Kunstrasen

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 52+ matches

Unterhaching U1937%

×Draw22%

Augsburg U1941%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Unterhaching U19Expected goals in this matchAugsburg U19

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.83

1.92

Unterhaching U19

1.83

Augsburg U19

1.92

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 52 home / 73 away

1.63

creates per match

1.81

2.02

allows per match

2.03

creates per match

Unterhaching U19

1.63

Augsburg U19

1.81

allows per match

Unterhaching U19

2.02

Augsburg U19

2.03

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Unterhaching U19+0.00on par

Augsburg U19+0.00on par

Total goals

Over72
Under28

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes72
No28

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Unterhaching U19 ↓

Augsburg U19 →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–02%

0–15%

0–24%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–04%

1–18%

1–28%

1–35%

1–42%

2

2–04%

2–18%

2–27%

2–35%

2–42%

3

3–02%

3–15%

3–24%

3–33%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–22%

4–31%

4–41%

Most likely 1–1 (8%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

98%2%1.5

89%11%2.5

72%28%3.5

51%49%4.5

32%68%

Double chance

Unterhaching U19 or draw

59%

Unterhaching U19 or Augsburg U19

78%

Draw or Augsburg U19

63%

Winning margin

Unterhaching U19 wins by 2+

20%

Augsburg U19 wins by 2+

22%

Team goals

Unterhaching U19 1+ goals

84%

Unterhaching U19 2+ goals

54%

Unterhaching U19 3+ goals

28%

Augsburg U19 1+ goals

85%

Augsburg U19 2+ goals

57%

Augsburg U19 3+ goals

30%

Draw no bet

Unterhaching U19 (draw refunded)

48%

Augsburg U19 (draw refunded)

52%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

63%

Both score & under 3

8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Unterhaching U19 at home — creates 1.63, concedes 2.02 · 52 matches

Augsburg U19 away — creates 1.81, concedes 2.03 · 73 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Unterhaching U19 attack 1.63 + Augsburg U19 defence 2.03 → ÷2 → 1.83

Augsburg U19 attack 1.81 + Unterhaching U19 defence 2.02 → ÷2 → 1.92

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Unterhaching U19 scores more

37%

level

22%

Augsburg U19 scores more

41%

Augsburg U19 at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Augsburg U19 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

11'

D. Dell'Erba

58'

D. Hausmann← N. Ortel

58'

B. Krist← N. Mouly

60'

P. Schemat← D. Pejcinovic

78'

D. Haimerl

81'

B. Eckl← S. Burke

85'

D. Girtler← A. Hirtlreiter

90+2'

N. Nollenberger← A.Keller

90'

R. Perovic← M. Kömür

Unterhaching

Augsburg

▼

⚽

▼

▼

⚽

▼

▼

▼

▼

Manager: S. Teichmann

58'▲D. Hausmann←▼N. Ortel

81'▲B. Eckl←▼S. Burke

85'▲D. Girtler←▼A. Hirtlreiter

90+2'▲N. Nollenberger←▼A.Keller

Unterhaching U19 substitutes

HausmannEcklGirtlerNollenbergerGottmeierBarakatManole

Manager: A. Frankenberger

58'▲B. Krist←▼N. Mouly

60'▲P. Schemat←▼D. Pejcinovic

90'▲R. Perovic←▼M. Kömür

Augsburg U19 substitutes

KristSchematPerovicSchwarzensteinerReichenbachSanderŠebalj

Match Recap: Unterhaching U19 vs Augsburg U19

Unterhaching U19 and Augsburg U19 drew 1-1 in U19 Bundesliga on March 6, 2022.

Goals: D. Dell'Erba (11'), D. Haimerl (78').

The match was played at Sportpark Unterhaching Kunstrasen in Unterhaching.

Unterhaching U19 vs Augsburg U19 — U19 Bundesliga 2019

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

Match Recap: Unterhaching U19 vs Augsburg U19