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UNSAAC W vs Atl. Andahuaylas W — Liga Women 2026

UNSAAC W
UNSAAC W
Preview
20:00
Atl. Andahuaylas W
Atl. Andahuaylas W
8/5/2026Liga WomenLiga Women · Clausura - 3
42%
UNSAAC W
model favours
42%28%30%
1–0
likely score
61%
under 2.5 goals
45%
both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 4+ matches

UNSAAC W42%
×Draw28%
Atl. Andahuaylas W30%
✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
48.6%
Always home
43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

UNSAAC W
1.25
Atl. Andahuaylas W
1.00

UNSAAC W creates 25% more chances

Season form · 4 home / 6 away

creates per match

UNSAAC W
1.00
Atl. Andahuaylas W
1.00

allows per match

UNSAAC W
1.00
Atl. Andahuaylas W
1.50

finishing

UNSAAC W+0.00on par
Atl. Andahuaylas W+0.00on par

Total goals

61%Under
  • Under61
  • Over39

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

55%No
  • No55
  • Yes45

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

UNSAAC W ↓

Atl. Andahuaylas W →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–011%
0–111%
0–25%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–113%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–18%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
89%11%1.5
66%34%2.5
39%61%3.5
19%81%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

UNSAAC W or draw
70%
UNSAAC W or Atl. Andahuaylas W
72%
Draw or Atl. Andahuaylas W
58%

Winning margin

UNSAAC W wins by 2+
19%
Atl. Andahuaylas W wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

UNSAAC W 1+ goals
71%
UNSAAC W 2+ goals
36%
UNSAAC W 3+ goals
13%
Atl. Andahuaylas W 1+ goals
63%
Atl. Andahuaylas W 2+ goals
26%
Atl. Andahuaylas W 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

UNSAAC W (draw refunded)
59%
Atl. Andahuaylas W (draw refunded)
41%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
32%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

UNSAAC W at home — creates 1.00, concedes 1.00 · 4 matches

Atl. Andahuaylas W away — creates 1.00, concedes 1.50 · 6 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

UNSAAC W attack 1.00 + Atl. Andahuaylas W defence 1.50 → ÷2 → 1.25

Atl. Andahuaylas W attack 1.00 + UNSAAC W defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.00

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

UNSAAC W scores more
42%
level
28%
Atl. Andahuaylas W scores more
30%

UNSAAC W at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "UNSAAC W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Form
W
LDLLL
W
DLWWW

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

UNSAAC W face Atl. Andahuaylas W (Liga Women)

Liga Women returns with UNSAAC W hosting Atl. Andahuaylas W. Match starts August 5, 2026. Live commentary, lineups, and stats appear here from kickoff. Submit your prediction below for a chance to earn XP.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.