University of Pretoria 3–2 Cape Town ALL Stars

University of Pretoria

FT

3 – 2

HT: 1 – 0

Cape Town ALL Stars

L. Phewa 82'

S. Barns 59'

S. Julies 32' (pen)

R. Baartman 89'

N. Mdabuka 58'

9/21/2021

League #289 · Round 5ABSA Tuks Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

University of Pretoria47%

×Draw27%

Cape Town ALL Stars26%

✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.6%

Always home

44.7%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.6% correct across 576,853 matches, vs 44.7% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.9% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

University of PretoriaExpected goals in this matchCape Town ALL Stars

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.44

1.00

University of Pretoria

1.44

Cape Town ALL Stars

1.00

University of Pretoria creates 44% more chances

Season form · 11 home / 3 away

1.55

creates per match

1.00

allows per match

1.33

creates per match

University of Pretoria

1.55

Cape Town ALL Stars

1.00

allows per match

University of Pretoria

1.00

Cape Town ALL Stars

1.33

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

University of Pretoria+0.00on par

Cape Town ALL Stars+0.00on par

Total goals

Under56
Over44

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No52
Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

University of Pretoria ↓

Cape Town ALL Stars →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–09%

0–19%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–013%

1–113%

1–26%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–09%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

70%30%2.5

44%56%3.5

23%77%4.5

10%90%

Double chance

University of Pretoria or draw

74%

University of Pretoria or Cape Town ALL Stars

73%

Draw or Cape Town ALL Stars

53%

Winning margin

University of Pretoria wins by 2+

23%

Cape Town ALL Stars wins by 2+

10%

Team goals

University of Pretoria 1+ goals

76%

University of Pretoria 2+ goals

42%

University of Pretoria 3+ goals

18%

Cape Town ALL Stars 1+ goals

63%

Cape Town ALL Stars 2+ goals

26%

Cape Town ALL Stars 3+ goals

8%

Draw no bet

University of Pretoria (draw refunded)

64%

Cape Town ALL Stars (draw refunded)

36%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

36%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

University of Pretoria at home — creates 1.55, concedes 1.00 · 11 matches

Cape Town ALL Stars away — creates 1.00, concedes 1.33 · 3 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

University of Pretoria attack 1.55 + Cape Town ALL Stars defence 1.33 → ÷2 → 1.44

Cape Town ALL Stars attack 1.00 + University of Pretoria defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.00

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

University of Pretoria scores more

47%

level

27%

Cape Town ALL Stars scores more

26%

University of Pretoria at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "University of Pretoria will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

32'

S. JuliesPenalty

46'

K. Pheeane← S. Mbonde

46'

P. Mphuthi← E. Rodgers

46'

R. Maarman← R. Koopstadt

51'

58'

59'

65'

82'

89'

University

Cape

⚽

▼

▼

⚽

▼

⚽

▼

▼

Manager: T. Motaung

46'▲K. Pheeane←▼S. Mbonde

51'▲S. Mbatha←▼A. Mvambi

65'▲L. Phewa←▼S. Julies

University of Pretoria substitutes

PheeaneMbathaPhewaColaAllenNzuzaMohlamonyaneMokwena

Manager: S. Badela

46'▲P. Mphuthi←▼E. Rodgers

46'▲R. Maarman←▼R. Koopstadt

Cape Town ALL Stars substitutes

MphuthiMaarmanNtsaboPoggenpoelBooysenKhumaloJacobsBaartmanGaxa