Universitatea Galaţi W 0–6 Arad W: Result & Stats

Universitatea Galaţi W

FT

0 – 6

Arad W

11/7/2021

Liga 1 Feminin · Round 8Stadionul Dunărea

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 31+ matches

Universitatea Galaţi W22%

×Draw18%

Arad W60%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Universitatea Galaţi WExpected goals in this matchArad W

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.54

2.61

Universitatea Galaţi W

1.54

Arad W

2.61

Arad W creates 69% more chances

Season form · 31 home / 32 away

1.03

creates per match

2.19

3.03

allows per match

2.06

creates per match

Universitatea Galaţi W

1.03

Arad W

2.19

allows per match

Universitatea Galaţi W

3.03

Arad W

2.06

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Universitatea Galaţi W+0.00on par

Arad W+0.00on par

Total goals

Over78
Under22

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes73
No27

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Universitatea Galaţi W ↓

Arad W →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–02%

0–14%

0–25%

0–35%

0–43%

1

1–02%

1–16%

1–28%

1–37%

1–45%

2

2–02%

2–15%

2–26%

2–36%

2–44%

3

3–01%

3–13%

3–23%

3–33%

3–42%

4

4–00%

4–11%

4–21%

4–31%

4–41%

Most likely 1–2 (8%) · grid covers 87% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

98%2%1.5

92%8%2.5

78%22%3.5

59%41%4.5

39%61%

Double chance

Universitatea Galaţi W or draw

40%

Universitatea Galaţi W or Arad W

82%

Draw or Arad W

78%

Winning margin

Universitatea Galaţi W wins by 2+

10%

Arad W wins by 2+

39%

Team goals

Universitatea Galaţi W 1+ goals

79%

Universitatea Galaţi W 2+ goals

45%

Universitatea Galaţi W 3+ goals

20%

Arad W 1+ goals

93%

Arad W 2+ goals

73%

Arad W 3+ goals

47%

Draw no bet

Universitatea Galaţi W (draw refunded)

27%

Arad W (draw refunded)

73%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

66%

Both score & under 3

6%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Universitatea Galaţi W at home — creates 1.03, concedes 3.03 · 31 matches

Arad W away — creates 2.19, concedes 2.06 · 32 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Universitatea Galaţi W attack 1.03 + Arad W defence 2.06 → ÷2 → 1.54

Arad W attack 2.19 + Universitatea Galaţi W defence 3.03 → ÷2 → 2.61

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 60%?"

Universitatea Galaţi W scores more

22%

level

18%

Arad W scores more

60%

Arad W at 60% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 60% does not mean "Arad W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff