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Universitatea Craiova vs Universitatea Cluj — Liga I 2018

Universitatea Craiova
Universitatea Craiova
FT
2 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
Universitatea Cluj
Universitatea Cluj
7/28/2025Liga ILiga I · Round 3Stadionul Ion Oblemenco

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 79+ matches

Universitatea Craiova47%
×Draw27%
Universitatea Cluj26%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Universitatea Craiova
1.41
Universitatea Cluj
0.97

Universitatea Craiova creates 45% more chances

Season form · 156 home / 79 away

creates per match

Universitatea Craiova
1.63
Universitatea Cluj
1.13

allows per match

Universitatea Craiova
0.81
Universitatea Cluj
1.19

finishing

Universitatea Craiova+0.00on par
Universitatea Cluj+0.00on par

Total goals

58%Under
  • Under58
  • Over42

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

53%No
  • No53
  • Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Universitatea Craiova ↓

Universitatea Cluj →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–19%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–09%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
69%31%2.5
42%58%3.5
22%78%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

Universitatea Craiova or draw
74%
Universitatea Craiova or Universitatea Cluj
73%
Draw or Universitatea Cluj
53%

Winning margin

Universitatea Craiova wins by 2+
23%
Universitatea Cluj wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Universitatea Craiova 1+ goals
76%
Universitatea Craiova 2+ goals
41%
Universitatea Craiova 3+ goals
17%
Universitatea Cluj 1+ goals
62%
Universitatea Cluj 2+ goals
25%
Universitatea Cluj 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Universitatea Craiova (draw refunded)
65%
Universitatea Cluj (draw refunded)
35%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
34%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Universitatea Craiova at home — creates 1.63, concedes 0.81 · 156 matches

Universitatea Cluj away — creates 1.13, concedes 1.19 · 79 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Universitatea Craiova attack 1.63 + Universitatea Cluj defence 1.19 → ÷2 → 1.41

Universitatea Cluj attack 1.13 + Universitatea Craiova defence 0.81 → ÷2 → 0.97

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Universitatea Craiova scores more
47%
level
27%
Universitatea Cluj scores more
26%

Universitatea Craiova at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Universitatea Craiova will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Universitatea Craiova vs Universitatea Cluj

Universitatea Craiova beat Universitatea Cluj 2-1 in Liga I on July 28, 2025.

The match was played at Stadionul Ion Oblemenco in Craiova.