Universitatea Craiova 0–0 Universitatea Cluj

Universitatea Craiova

Pens

0 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Universitatea Cluj

G. Zajkov 120+11' (pen)

L. Houri 120+9' (pen), 120' (pen)

A. Crețu 120+8' (pen)

A. Mekvabishvili 120+5' (pen)

E. Koljić 120+1' (pen)

0 D. Nistor 120+10' (pen)

Thalisson Kelven 120+7' (pen)

A. Chipciu 120+6' (pen)

B. Mitrea 120+4' (pen)

O. Bic 120+2' (pen)

5/26/2024

Liga I · Conference League Play-offs - FinalComplex Sportiv Craiova

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 7+ matches

Universitatea Craiova50%

×Draw22%

Universitatea Cluj28%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Universitatea CraiovaExpected goals in this matchUniversitatea Cluj

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.98

1.43

Universitatea Craiova

1.98

Universitatea Cluj

1.43

Universitatea Craiova creates 38% more chances

Season form · 8 home / 7 away

2.15

creates per match

1.58

1.28

allows per match

1.80

creates per match

Universitatea Craiova

2.15

Universitatea Cluj

1.58

allows per match

Universitatea Craiova

1.28

Universitatea Cluj

1.80

-0.27scores less than expected

finishing

+0.42scores more than expected

finishing

Universitatea Craiova-0.27scores less

Universitatea Cluj+0.42scores more

Total goals

Over66
Under34

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes66
No34

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Universitatea Craiova ↓

Universitatea Cluj →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–03%

0–15%

0–23%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–07%

1–19%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–27%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–16%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–02%

4–13%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

85%15%2.5

66%34%3.5

44%56%4.5

25%75%

Double chance

Universitatea Craiova or draw

72%

Universitatea Craiova or Universitatea Cluj

78%

Draw or Universitatea Cluj

50%

Winning margin

Universitatea Craiova wins by 2+

29%

Universitatea Cluj wins by 2+

12%

Team goals

Universitatea Craiova 1+ goals

86%

Universitatea Craiova 2+ goals

59%

Universitatea Craiova 3+ goals

31%

Universitatea Cluj 1+ goals

76%

Universitatea Cluj 2+ goals

42%

Universitatea Cluj 3+ goals

17%

Draw no bet

Universitatea Craiova (draw refunded)

64%

Universitatea Cluj (draw refunded)

36%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

56%

Both score & under 3

9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Universitatea Craiova at home — creates 2.15, concedes 1.28 · 8 matches

Universitatea Cluj away — creates 1.58, concedes 1.80 · 7 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Universitatea Craiova attack 2.15 + Universitatea Cluj defence 1.80 → ÷2 → 1.98

Universitatea Cluj attack 1.58 + Universitatea Craiova defence 1.28 → ÷2 → 1.43

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Universitatea Craiova scores more

50%

level

22%

Universitatea Cluj scores more

28%

Universitatea Craiova at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Universitatea Craiova will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

21

L. Popescu

Universitatea Craiova · G

9.5

Match Events

-5'

17'

22'

45+1'

46'

58'

75'

L. Houri← A. Ivan

77'

A. Chinteș← Roger Junio

78'

V. Gheorghe← R. Silaghi

86'

K. Doukoure← F. Anselmo

96'

Basilio Ndong← P. Soiri

112'

Anzor Mekvabishvili

113'

B. Mitrea← D. Oancea

113'

J. Marković← A. Mitriță

120+8'

Bogdan MitreaPenalty confirmed

120+4'

Elvir KoljićGoal cancelled

120+5'

Alexandru Crețu

120+2'

F. Ilie← A. Chinteș

120'

L. HouriPenalty

120+10'

0 D. NistorPenalty

120+1'

E. KoljićPenalty

120+2'

O. BicPenalty

120+3'

Raúl SilvaMissed penalty

120+4'

B. MitreaPenalty

120+5'

A. MekvabishviliPenalty

120+6'

A. ChipciuPenalty

120+7'

Thalisson KelvenPenalty

120+8'

A. CrețuPenalty

120+9'

L. HouriPenalty

120+10'

D. NistorMissed penalty

120+11'

G. ZajkovPenalty

120+12'

F. IlieMissed penalty

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

UniversitateaUniversitatea

Overview

56%Possession44%

16Total Shots21

1.74Expected Goals (xG)2.69

9Corners5

22Fouls14

Shots

16Total Shots21

5On Target9

7Off Target8

4Blocked4

9Inside Box11

7Outside Box10

Passing

56%Possession44%

663Total Passes534

568Accurate Passes441

86%Pass Accuracy83%

Goalkeeping

8Saves4

Discipline

22Fouls14

4Yellow Cards2

3Offsides1