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Universitatea Craiova vs Sepsi OSK Sfantu Gheorghe — Liga I 2018

Universitatea Craiova
Universitatea Craiova
Preview
17:00
Sepsi OSK Sfantu Gheorghe
Sepsi OSK Sfantu Gheorghe
2/27/2027Liga ILiga I · Round 28Stadionul Ion Oblemenco
Big match
47%
Universitatea Craiova
model favours
47%27%26%

Universitatea Craiova are unbeaten in 10 straight

brightest fact of this match

1–0
likely score
56%
under 2.5 goals
48%
both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 135+ matches

Universitatea Craiova47%
×Draw27%
Sepsi OSK Sfantu Gheorghe26%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Universitatea Craiova
1.44
Sepsi OSK Sfantu Gheorghe
0.99

Universitatea Craiova creates 45% more chances

Season form · 156 home / 135 away

creates per match

Universitatea Craiova
1.63
Sepsi OSK Sfantu Gheorghe
1.18

allows per match

Universitatea Craiova
0.81
Sepsi OSK Sfantu Gheorghe
1.25

finishing

Universitatea Craiova+0.00on par
Sepsi OSK Sfantu Gheorghe+0.00on par

Total goals

56%Under
  • Under56
  • Over44

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

52%No
  • No52
  • Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Universitatea Craiova ↓

Sepsi OSK Sfantu Gheorghe →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–19%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
70%30%2.5
44%56%3.5
23%77%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Universitatea Craiova or draw
74%
Universitatea Craiova or Sepsi OSK Sfantu Gheorghe
73%
Draw or Sepsi OSK Sfantu Gheorghe
53%

Winning margin

Universitatea Craiova wins by 2+
23%
Sepsi OSK Sfantu Gheorghe wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Universitatea Craiova 1+ goals
76%
Universitatea Craiova 2+ goals
42%
Universitatea Craiova 3+ goals
18%
Sepsi OSK Sfantu Gheorghe 1+ goals
63%
Sepsi OSK Sfantu Gheorghe 2+ goals
26%
Sepsi OSK Sfantu Gheorghe 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

Universitatea Craiova (draw refunded)
65%
Sepsi OSK Sfantu Gheorghe (draw refunded)
35%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
35%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Universitatea Craiova at home — creates 1.63, concedes 0.81 · 156 matches

Sepsi OSK Sfantu Gheorghe away — creates 1.18, concedes 1.25 · 135 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Universitatea Craiova attack 1.63 + Sepsi OSK Sfantu Gheorghe defence 1.25 → ÷2 → 1.44

Sepsi OSK Sfantu Gheorghe attack 1.18 + Universitatea Craiova defence 0.81 → ÷2 → 0.99

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Universitatea Craiova scores more
47%
level
27%
Sepsi OSK Sfantu Gheorghe scores more
26%

Universitatea Craiova at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Universitatea Craiova will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Insights

  • Universitatea Craiova have won 8 of the last 10 meetings
  • Both teams scored in 8 of the last 10 meetings

Based on historical data — not a prediction.

Form
Craiova
WDWWD
Gheorghe
DWWDL

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Universitatea Craiova face Sepsi OSK Sfantu Gheorghe (Liga I)

Liga I returns with Universitatea Craiova hosting Sepsi OSK Sfantu Gheorghe. Match starts February 27, 2027. Live commentary, lineups, and stats appear here from kickoff. Submit your prediction below for a chance to earn XP.

Universitatea Craiova host Sepsi OSK Sfantu Gheorghe at Stadionul Ion Oblemenco.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.