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Universitatea Craiova vs Rapid — Liga I 2018

Universitatea Craiova
Universitatea Craiova
FT
2 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Rapid
Rapid
3/30/2024Liga ILiga I · Championship Round - 2Complex Sportiv Craiova

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 99+ matches

Universitatea Craiova47%
×Draw27%
Rapid26%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Universitatea Craiova
1.44
Rapid
1.01

Universitatea Craiova creates 43% more chances

Season form · 156 home / 99 away

creates per match

Universitatea Craiova
1.63
Rapid
1.21

allows per match

Universitatea Craiova
0.81
Rapid
1.26

finishing

Universitatea Craiova+0.00on par
Rapid+0.00on par

Total goals

56%Under
  • Under56
  • Over44

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

51%No
  • No51
  • Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Universitatea Craiova ↓

Rapid →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–19%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
70%30%2.5
44%56%3.5
23%77%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Universitatea Craiova or draw
74%
Universitatea Craiova or Rapid
73%
Draw or Rapid
53%

Winning margin

Universitatea Craiova wins by 2+
23%
Rapid wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Universitatea Craiova 1+ goals
76%
Universitatea Craiova 2+ goals
42%
Universitatea Craiova 3+ goals
18%
Rapid 1+ goals
64%
Rapid 2+ goals
27%
Rapid 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

Universitatea Craiova (draw refunded)
64%
Rapid (draw refunded)
36%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
36%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Universitatea Craiova at home — creates 1.63, concedes 0.81 · 156 matches

Rapid away — creates 1.21, concedes 1.26 · 99 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Universitatea Craiova attack 1.63 + Rapid defence 1.26 → ÷2 → 1.44

Rapid attack 1.21 + Universitatea Craiova defence 0.81 → ÷2 → 1.01

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Universitatea Craiova scores more
47%
level
27%
Rapid scores more
26%

Universitatea Craiova at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Universitatea Craiova will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Universitatea Craiova vs Rapid

Universitatea Craiova beat Rapid 2-1 in Liga I on March 30, 2024.

The match was played at Complex Sportiv Craiova in Craiova.